IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v37y2005i4p679-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conditional Time-Varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Hess, Alan C
  • Kamara, Avraham

Abstract

Existing studies of the term structure of interest rates often use spot Treasury rates to represent default-free interest rates. However, part of the premium in Treasury rates is compensation for the risk that short-sellers may default. Since Treasury bill futures are default-free, they provide cleaner data to estimate the interest rate risk premium. The mean excess return in default-free Treasury bill futures is zero. This suggests that the interest rate risk premium could be economically negligible. We find that although the mean unconditional premium is zero, futures returns contain economically and statistically significant time-varying conditional interest rate risk premiums. The conditional premium depends significantly positively on its own conditional variance and its conditional covariance with the equity premium. The conditional premium is large in the volatile 1979-82 period, but small afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Alan C & Kamara, Avraham, 2005. "Conditional Time-Varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 679-698, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:679-98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jing Li, 2021. "On Estimating Risk Premium With Flexible Fourier Form," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1026-1035.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    4. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    5. Teplova, Tamara V. & Rodina, Victoria A., 2021. "The reinvestment risk premium in the valuation of British and Russian government bonds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Mahfuzul Haque & Imen Kouki, 2009. "Effect of 9/11 on the conditional time-varying equity risk premium: evidence from developed markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276, May.
    8. Kathleen Walsh & David Tan, 2008. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Bank Bill Term Premium," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 231-260, December.
    9. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:679-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.