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Conditional Time-Varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market

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  • Hess, Alan C
  • Kamara, Avraham

Abstract

Existing studies of the term structure of interest rates often use spot Treasury rates to represent default-free interest rates. However, part of the premium in Treasury rates is compensation for the risk that short-sellers may default. Since Treasury bill futures are default-free, they provide cleaner data to estimate the interest rate risk premium. The mean excess return in default-free Treasury bill futures is zero. This suggests that the interest rate risk premium could be economically negligible. We find that although the mean unconditional premium is zero, futures returns contain economically and statistically significant time-varying conditional interest rate risk premiums. The conditional premium depends significantly positively on its own conditional variance and its conditional covariance with the equity premium. The conditional premium is large in the volatile 1979-82 period, but small afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Alan C & Kamara, Avraham, 2005. "Conditional Time-Varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 679-698, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:679-98
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing Li, 2021. "On Estimating Risk Premium With Flexible Fourier Form," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1026-1035.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2011. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-007, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    5. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    6. Teplova, Tamara V. & Rodina, Victoria A., 2021. "The reinvestment risk premium in the valuation of British and Russian government bonds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Mahfuzul Haque & Imen Kouki, 2009. "Effect of 9/11 on the conditional time-varying equity risk premium: evidence from developed markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276, May.
    9. Kathleen Walsh & David Tan, 2008. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Bank Bill Term Premium," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 231-260, December.
    10. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.

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