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Money Supply Announcements and the Ex Ante Volatility of Asset Prices

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  • Bailey, Warren Bernard

Abstract

Previous empirical studies have documented more volatile money grow th and money surprises, more volatile asset price changes, and increased responsiveness of asset prices to money surprises since the October 1 979 change in Fed policy. This paper studies the associations between money announcements and the ex ante volatility of asset prices in th e recent past. Results indicate that revisions of ex ante asset price volatility, as measured from prices of stock index, government debt, gold, and foreign currency options, are significantly correlated with the surprise component of the weekly M1 release. There is also evidence that money releases reduce volatility by resolving uncertainty. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Bailey, Warren Bernard, 1988. "Money Supply Announcements and the Ex Ante Volatility of Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 611-620, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:20:y:1988:i:4:p:611-20
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    Cited by:

    1. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 656-685, June.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3299-3303, October.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2001. "Macroeconomic news and the euro/dollar exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 105, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Isakov, Dusan & Perignon, Christophe, 2001. "Evolution of market uncertainty around earnings announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1769-1788, September.
    5. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
    6. Catherine Bonser-Neal, 1996. "Does central bank intervention stabilize foreign exchange rates?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q I), pages 43-57.
    7. Terence Tai Leung Chong & Chenxi Lu & Wing Hong Chan, 2020. "Long Range Dependence And Structural Breaks In The Gold Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 257-273, March.
    8. Vilhelmsson, Anders, 2020. "Macro news and long-run volatility expectations," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2020/1, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    9. Dinh, Theu & Goutte, Stéphane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Economic drivers of volatility and correlation in precious metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    10. Terence Tai Leung Chong & Chenxi Lu & Wing Hong Chan, 2017. "Long Range Dependence And Structural Breaks In The Gold Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 257-273, June.
    11. Marshall, Andrew & Musayev, Taleh & Pinto, Helena & Tang, Leilei, 2012. "Impact of news announcements on the foreign exchange implied volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 719-737.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    13. Boyle, Glenn W. & Young, Leslie, 1999. "Monetary rules and stock market value," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 365-372, July.
    14. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    15. Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "The Response of Tail Risk Perceptions to Unconventional Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 111-136, April.
    16. Ming-Chih Lee & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2008. "Do foreign trading patterns cause abnormal information from Taiwanese stock markets?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1219-1224.
    17. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "A century and a half of the monetary base-stock market relationship," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 118-124.
    18. Cronin, David, 2014. "The interaction between money and asset markets: A spillover index approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 185-202.
    19. Warren Bailey & Lin Zheng & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "What Makes the VIX Tick?," Working Papers 222012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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