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Unanticipated Money and the Political Business Cycle

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  • Richards, Daniel J

Abstract

Six different series of one-period forecasts for money growth are generated for each year, 1960 through 1984. The prediction errors are analyzed to see whet herthe authorities attempted to expand the economy in election years by unexpectedly raising money growth. While there is no evidence of attempts to fool the public throughout the entire 1960-84 period, such fooling may have been tried through 1974. It is speculated that the public discussion of expectations formation and of politicians' motivations since then may have signaled officials that further attempts to mislead the public would be prohibitively costly. Copyright 1986 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Richards, Daniel J, 1986. "Unanticipated Money and the Political Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 447-457, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:18:y:1986:i:4:p:447-57
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghate, Chetan & Zak, Paul J., 2002. "Growth of government and the politics of fiscal policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 435-455, December.
    2. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1995. "Cincuenta Años de Ciclo Político-Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 32(96), pages 129-150.
    3. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
    4. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    5. Jon Faust & John S. Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 1995. "Do shifts in federal reserve policy regimes explain interest rate anomalies?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 227-240.
    7. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    8. Muhammad Shahid Akram & Toseef Azid, 2006. "Economics of Regaining Office: The Case of Pakistan (1947-2005)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 913-923.
    9. David Hakes, 1988. "Monetary policy and presidential elections: A nonpartisan political cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 175-182, May.

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