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Analysis of the Relationship between the Business Cycle and Inflation Gap in Time-Frequency Domain

Author

Listed:
  • Taheri Bazkhaneh , Saleh

    (University of Mazandaran)

  • Ehsani , Mohammad Ali

    (University of Mazandaran)

  • Gilak Hakimabadi , Mohammad Taqi

    (University of Mazandaran)

  • Farzinvash , Asodollah

    (University of Tehran)

Abstract

Controlling the business cycle and minimizing the inflation gap are considered as two major goals for monetary policy. Hence, the policymaker will be able to make more decisive decisions with an awareness of the dynamic relationship and causal relationship between these two variables. Accordingly, the present study uses a discrete and continuous wavelet transform to provide a new understanding of the relationship between these two variables in Iran's economy during the years 1990:2 – 2017:1. According to the results of the research, in the short-run (less than one year), the causal relationship has been bidirectional and procyclical. In the medium run (1 to 4 years), the causal relationship is countercyclical and from the inflation gap to the business cycle. In the long run (4 to 8 years), the business cycle is leading, and the two variables are in phase. Besides, the relationship between variables is highly unstable over time and depends on different scales. Therefore, inflation in Iran's economy is not merely a monetary phenomenon, and in the medium-term is affected by changes in the real sector. According to the results of the research, for the output and the inflation to be stable, it is recommended that the policymaker take both goals simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Taheri Bazkhaneh , Saleh & Ehsani , Mohammad Ali & Gilak Hakimabadi , Mohammad Taqi & Farzinvash , Asodollah, 2018. "Analysis of the Relationship between the Business Cycle and Inflation Gap in Time-Frequency Domain," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 401-422, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:13:y:2018:i:3:p:401-422
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Inflation Gap; Wavelet Transform; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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