IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mbr/jmonec/v11y2016i3p305-330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Do Agricultural Subsectors Respond to Productivity Shocks? Evidence from a Bayesian DSGE Model in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Khosravi, Mahdi

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman)

  • Mehrabi Boshrabadi , Hossein

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman)

  • Ahmadyan, Azam

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute)

  • Jalaei, Seyyed Abdolmajid

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman)

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of productivity shocks is instrumental if we are to identify the sources of economic growth. This paper, investigates dynamic effects of positives productivity shocks to agricultural subsectors during the period from 1991-2015, by disaggregating agricultural sector in Iran into four key subsectors (crops, livestock, fishing and forestry) through an estimated DSGE model. Our Bayesian estimation results suggest that positive productivity shocks lead to an increase in output, consumption, capital, employment and real wages and a fall in marginal costs and price indexes in all four subsectors. Comparing the results across the subsectors shows that following the shocks, generally, crops and livestock have the strongest reactions and forestry has the weakest ones. Additionally, among the variables, output indicates the highest responses to the shocks. Variance decomposition analysis reveals that agricultural fluctuations are mainly explained by productivity, monetary, preference and government spending shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Khosravi, Mahdi & Mehrabi Boshrabadi , Hossein & Ahmadyan, Azam & Jalaei, Seyyed Abdolmajid, 2016. "How Do Agricultural Subsectors Respond to Productivity Shocks? Evidence from a Bayesian DSGE Model in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(3), pages 305-330, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:11:y:2016:i:3:p:305-330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-226-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-226-en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mullen, John D., 2007. "Productivity Growth and the Returns from Public Investment in R&D in Australian Broadacre Agriculture," 2007 Conference (51st), February 13-16, 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand 9451, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Tavakolian , Hossein & Ebrahimi , Ilnaz, 2012. "Exchange Rate Policy of Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(2), pages 51-68, December.
    3. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    4. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    5. Yongsung Chang & Jay H. Hong, 2006. "Do Technological Improvements in the Manufacturing Sector Raise or Lower Employment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 352-368, March.
    6. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    7. Thorat, V.A. & Tilekar, S.N. & Dhekale, J.S. & Patil, H.K., 2006. "Total Factor Productivity in Horticultural Crops in Konkan Region of Maharashtra," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 19(Conferenc).
    8. Waleerat Suphannachart & Peter Warr, 2010. "Total Factor Productivity in Thai Agriculture Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers 201001, Kasetsart University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    9. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
    10. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    11. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    12. Michael R. Carter & Pedro Olinto, 2003. "Getting Institutions “Right” for Whom? Credit Constraints and the Impact of Property Rights on the Quantity and Composition of Investment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 173-186.
    13. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    15. John Mullen, 2007. "Productivity growth and the returns from public investment in R&D in Australian broadacre agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(4), pages 359-384, December.
    16. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    2. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    3. Kim, Sangho & Lim, Hyunjoon & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Productivity and Employment in a Developing Country: Some Evidence from Korea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 514-522, April.
    4. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    6. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2008. "The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 369-388, March.
    7. Totzek, Alexander, 2009. "Firms' heterogeneity, endogenous entry, and exit decisions," Economics Working Papers 2009-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 769-783.
    9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Carrillo, Julio A., 2012. "How well does sticky information explain the dynamics of inflation, output, and real wages?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 830-850.
    12. Tim Berg, 2012. "Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 693-722, October.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Michelacci, Claudio & López-Salido, J David, 2007. "The Labour Market Effects of Technology Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    15. Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "What are the effects of technology shocks on international labor markets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 806, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2010. "Redistributive shocks and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 931-948, November.
    17. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2014. "Phillips curve shocks and real exchange rate fluctuations: SVAR evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    18. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    19. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
    20. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Subsectors; Bayesian Estimation; DSGE Model; Productivity Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:11:y:2016:i:3:p:305-330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. E. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mbcbiir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.