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Die japanischen Lehren für die europäische Krise

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  • Schnabl Gunther

    (Universität Leipzig, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik, Grimmaische Str. 12, D-04109 Leipzig, Tel.: (0341) 9733 561)

Abstract

Japan went 15 years earlier than Europe through a boom-and-bust cycle in the real estate and stock markets. The country has made important experience with crisis therapies in form of monetary expansion, Keynesian fiscal stimulus and recapitalization of financial institutions. Japan has reached the zero interest bound in 1999 and has accumulated a very high public debt level. The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for the boom, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. It is argued that the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of the zero-interest rate and high debt trap, the erosion of the allocation and signaling function of the interest rate, the gradual nationalization of the financial sector and aggregate demand, as well as gradual real income losses. The economic policy implication for Europe and Japan is the timely exit from crisis therapies in form of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies despite high adjustment costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Schnabl Gunther, 2013. "Die japanischen Lehren für die europäische Krise," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 62(1), pages 3-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:62:y:2013:i:1:p:3-22
    DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2013-0102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    2. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "National Monetary Policy, Internatinal Economic Instability and Feeback Effects - An Overinvestment View," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 19-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Charles Wyplosz, 2011. "European Debt Crisis: What Is The Way Out," CASE Network E-briefs 04, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    5. Gunther Schnabl & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4108, CESifo.
    6. János Kornai, 2014. "The soft budget constraint," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(supplemen), pages 25-79, November.
    7. Daisuke Ishikawa & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2006. "Has the Credit Crunch Occurred in Japan in 1990s?," Discussion papers 06012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    9. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
    10. Gunther Schnabl & Stephan Freitag, 2012. "Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 25-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    11. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, March.
    12. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
    13. Abad, José & Löffler, Axel & Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2012. "Fiscal divergence, current account and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Working Papers 105, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    14. Naoyuki Yoshino & Tetsuro Mizoguchi, 2010. "The Role of Public Works in the Political Business Cycle and the Instability of the Budget Deficits in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 94-112, Winter/Sp.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Klaus Wiener & Rolf Ketzler, 2016. "Versicherungswirtschaft und Niedrigzinsumfeld: Risiken, Nebenwirkungen und Anpassungsstrategien," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(1), pages 65-79.
    3. Michael Schubert & Sebastian Watzka & Jörg Hinze & Leon Leschus & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Leitzinssenkung auf historischem Allzeittief: Welche Folgen hat die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 3-19, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan; Europa; Bubble Economy; Europäische Schuldenkrise; Niedrigzinspolitik; Stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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