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The Predictions on the Future of Labour are not Grounded; Some Arguments for a Bayesian Approach

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  • Viorel ROTILA

    (Professor PhD, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania, Director of the Solidaritatea Research and Development Center, Galati, Romania.)

Abstract

Expectations on predicting the future of work are not substantiated, and can only control some of the variables that define its character. The following variables could help to shape a Bayesian methodological framework of the future of labour and could interfere in modelling labour status: 1) The meaning of labour depends on the context of significance specific to each historical period 2) The fate of labour is dependent on the ontological status of the utensil 3) The status of labour is defined to a significant extent in the self-fulfilling / defeating prophecy horizon 4) The normative perspective: the future of labour will be as we want it to be, but we cannot predict the evolution of our desires 5) The present confirms to a small extent the expectations of the past 6) Predictability in the field of labour is not protected by black swans: the evolution of artificial intelligence outlines the most important dimension of the extremistan 7) If the decision belongs to the human, there will be at least some areas where human labour will be preferred 8) The increase in the number of jobs and the decrease in their quality cannot be excluded 9) the progress can also lead to the increase of the number of jobs 10) The diminishing of social control over labour will persist. The arguments in favour of labour show that it will still exist, but we cannot be sure who and how it will be, or what status it will have.

Suggested Citation

  • Viorel ROTILA, 2018. "The Predictions on the Future of Labour are not Grounded; Some Arguments for a Bayesian Approach," Postmodern Openings, Editura Lumen, Department of Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 36-63, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:lum:rev3rl:v:9:y:2018:i:3:p:36-63
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.18662/po/35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Benjamin M. Sand, 2016. "The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 199-247.
    2. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    3. Carrie Arnold, 2018. "Money for nothing: the truth about universal basic income," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7707), pages 626-628, May.
    4. Viorel ROTILÄ‚ & Lidia CELMARE, 2017. "Analysis of a Major Inequity in the Budgetary Wage System: Gerontocracy. Arguments and Solutions," Book chapters-LUMEN Proceedings, in: Camelia IGNATESCU & Antonio SANDU & Tomita CIULEI (ed.), Rethinking Social Action. Core Values in Practice, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 66, pages 730-739, Editura Lumen.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    future of labour; prediction; Bayesian method; fitness argument.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A23 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Graduate

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