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Structural Change and Mid-Income Trap – Under which conditions can China succeed in moving towards higher income status?

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  • Helmut Wagner

Abstract

After two decades of very high economic growth rates, China has now reached the so-called mid-income range or ‘trap’, i.e. a development level where it has to expect slower economic growth rates (a ‘New Normal’) for the future. Associated with that is a structural change towards tertiarization which requires some fundamental rebalancing of China’s economy. Overcoming this mid-income trap and further catching up to the most advanced countries in the world is a very demanding task. In order to succeed China has to efficiently manage the mentioned rebalancing (structural change) process towards tertiarization and to undertake many fundamental structural reforms.

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  • Helmut Wagner, 2015. "Structural Change and Mid-Income Trap – Under which conditions can China succeed in moving towards higher income status?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 12(2), pages 165-188, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:165-188
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    Cited by:

    1. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "How severe will the growth slowdown in China caused by the structural change be? – An evaluation based on experiences from Japan and South Korea," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 8/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    3. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2018. "Avoiding the middle-income trap: Korean lessons for China?," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 14/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    4. Prajapati, Vishwajeet Singh & Priya, Ashutosh & Pradhan, Vikas, 2023. "The Middle-Income Trap – A Problem Of Definition And Empirical Research," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(3), September.
    5. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2019. "The deep determinants of economic development in China—a provincial perspective," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 484-514, October.
    6. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
    7. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2017. "How severe will the growth slowdown in China caused by the structural change be? An evaluation based on experiences from Japan and South Korea," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 269-287, July.
    8. Gandenberger, Carsten, 2018. "China's trajectory from production to innovation: Insights from the photovoltaics sector," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S03/2018, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    9. Wagner, Prof. Dr. Helmut, 2016. "The Building Up of New Imbalances in China: The Dilemma with ‘Rebalancing’," MPRA Paper 71494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    11. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    12. Helmut Wagner, 2017. "The building up of new imbalances in China: the dilemma with ‘rebalancing’," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 701-722, October.
    13. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "A stylized model of China’s growth since 1978," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 5/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    14. Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "On the (non-)sustainability of China’s development strategies," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 6/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    15. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    16. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 13/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    17. Prajapati Vishwajeet Singh & Priya Ashutosh & Pradhan Vikas, 2023. "The middle-income trap – a problem of definition and empirical research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 459-472, September.
    18. Wagner, Helmut, 2016. "The building up of new imbalances in China: The dilemma with 'rebalancing'," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 3/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Middle-income trap; economic development; China; structural change; tertiarization; rebalancing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies
    • P5 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

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