IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lde/journl/y2019i91p117-150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Colombia’s stock market predictability

Author

Listed:
  • José Ignacio López-Gaviria

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

: This paper studies historical stock market returns in Colombia and their medium- and long-term predictability with the purpose of examining whether there is a constant or time-varying risk premium and its relationship with other economic variables. With this goal in mind, the paper presents a historical price index, returns and the aggregate dividend yield of Colombia’s stock market for the 1995-2017 period, using information for the whole universe of issuers. Most of the variation in the dividend yield is explained by expected returns, which implies that the stock market has medium- and long-term cycles and the risk premium is time varying. The predictive power of the model increases if extended to include information on housing finance, the real exchange rate and returns of the S&P 500 index, suggesting that credit frictions and small open economy considerations could play a role when modelling risk premium in Colombia’s stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ignacio López-Gaviria, 2019. "Colombia’s stock market predictability," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 91, pages 117-150, Julio - D.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2019:i:91:p:117-150
    DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n91a04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/lecturasdeeconomia/article/view/339174/20794117
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17533/udea.le.n91a04?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alvaro Montenegro, 2007. "El efecto día en la bolsa de valores de Colombia," Documentos de Economía 4447, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Julio Cesar Alonso & Juan Carlos Garcia, 2009. "¿Que tan buenos son los patrones del IGBC para predecir su comportamiento?: una aplicación de datos de alta frecuencia," Borradores de Economía y Finanzas 5243, Universidad Icesi.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Returns And Interest Rate: A Nonlinear Relationship In The Bogota Stock Market," Borradores de Economia 3468, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
    5. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
    6. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
    7. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    8. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    10. Julio César Alonso & Juan Carlos García, 2009. "¿Qué Tan Buenos Son Los Patrones Del Igbc Para Predecir Su Comportamiento?," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, September.
    11. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    12. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    13. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    15. Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez & Juan Benjami?n Duarte Duarte & Victor Alfonso Rueda Orti?z, 2015. "Predictibilidad de los retornos en el mercado de Colombia e hipótesis de mercado adaptativo," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 31(137), pages 411-418, November.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez & Juan Benjami?n Duarte Duarte & Victor Alfonso Rueda Orti?z, 2015. "Predictibilidad de los retornos en el mercado de Colombia e hipótesis de mercado adaptativo," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 31(137), pages 411-418, November.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    19. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-1333, September.
    20. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-80, February.
    21. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
    22. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    23. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    24. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    25. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    26. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    27. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    28. Yepes-Rios, Beatriz & Gonzalez-Tapia, Kelly & Gonzalez-Perez, Maria Alejandra, 2015. "The integration of stock exchanges: The case of the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA) and its impact on ownership and internationalization status in Colombian brokerage firms," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(39), pages 84-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. López Gaviria, José Ignacio, 2019. "Predictibilidad del mercado accionario colombiano," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 91, pages 117-150, July.
    2. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
    3. Mingwei Sun & Paskalis Glabadanidis, 2022. "Can technical indicators predict the Chinese equity risk premium?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 114-142, March.
    4. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
    5. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2017. "Stock return predictability in emerging markets: Does the choice of predictors and models matter across countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 39-60.
    6. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    7. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    9. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    10. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    11. Jurdi, Doureige & Kim, Jae, 2019. "Predicting the U.S. Stock Market Return: Evidence from the Improved Augmented Regression Method," MPRA Paper 94028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    13. Jaewon Choi & Matthew P. Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2014. "On the Fundamental Relation Between Equity Returns and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hai Lin & Daniel Quill & Henk Berkman, 2016. "Information diffusion and the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(3), pages 749-785, September.
    15. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    16. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
    17. Wang, Yudong & Pan, Zhiyuan & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2019. "Oil price increases and the predictability of equity premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 43-58.
    18. Li, Xiyang & Chen, Xiaoyue & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok & Shi, Kan, 2022. "Predictability of stock market returns: New evidence from developed and developing countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Atanasov, Victoria, 2018. "World output gap and global stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 181-197.
    20. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2017. "Predicting international stock returns with conditional price-to-fundamental ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-184.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    predictability; risk premium; dividend yield; Colombia’s stock market; expected returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2019:i:91:p:117-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlos Andrés Vasco Correa (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deantco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.