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Safety perception in transport demand modeling for the bike-metro integration in Bogota, Colombia

Author

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  • Luis Márquez

    (Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia)

Abstract

It is hypothesized that safety perception produces a significant effect on predicting demand for the bike-metro integration. Two models were calibrated in order to test this hypothesis: a mixed logit model and an integrated choice latent variable model, which were estimated simultaneously using simulated maximum likelihood. Data used in the estimation were taken in the locality of Kennedy, which is not only the most populous of Bogotá but also will be the starting point of the first metro line. The empirical evidence supported the hypothesis; in particular, it was found that the mixed model overestimates demand, especially in the scenarios for which provision of exclusive bicycle lanes was not considered. Also, significant differences in safety perception were found for users of motorcycle, taxis and public service, and generally for individuals according to income levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Márquez, 2016. "Safety perception in transport demand modeling for the bike-metro integration in Bogota, Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 84, pages 143-177, Enero - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2016:i:84:p:143-177
    DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n84a05
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integrated choice and latent variable models; safety perception; discrete choice experiments; bikemetro integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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