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A fiskális divergencia és a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása - a felelőtlen fiskális politika az aszimmetrikus sokkok forrása
[Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: irresponsibility is idiosyncratic]

Author

Listed:
  • Darvas, Zsolt
  • Szapáry, György
  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

A világ 115 országának - köztük 21 OECD-tagország - 40 évnyi adatait vizsgálva, arra a következtetésre jutottunk, hogy a hasonló állami költségvetési pozíciójú országok konjunktúraciklusai között szorosabb együttmozgás mutatható ki. Azaz, a fiskális konvergenciát (amelyet a költségvetési egyenleg GDP-hez viszonyt arányának konvergenciájaként definiáltunk) összehangoltabb konjunktúraciklusokkal lehet összefüggésbe hozni. Kutatásaink során arra is találtunk bizonyítékot, hogy a kisebb mértékű költségvetési deficitek növelik a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgását. A maastrichti konvergenciakritériumok - amelyek az európai monetáris unió követelményeinek való megfelelést hivatottak meghatározni - a fiskális konvergenciát és a költségvetési deficit csökkentését ösztönözték, s ezzel közvetett módon hozzásegítették Európát egy optimális valutaövezet létrehozásához azáltal, hogy csökkent az egyes országok lehetősége a felelőtlen fiskális politika által gerjesztett sokkhatások létrehozására. Az általunk feltárt empirikus eredmények gazdasági és statisztikai szempontból is szignifikánsak és robusztusak. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F42.

Suggested Citation

  • Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György & Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "A fiskális divergencia és a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása - a felelőtlen fiskális politika az aszimmetrikus sokkok forrása [Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: irresponsibilit," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 937-959.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:807
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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