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Mekkora lehet Magyarországona fenntartható növekedés üteme? - II. A fenntartható gazdasági növekedés problémái a rendszerváltás idején
[How high can Hungary’s sustainable growth grate be? II. Problems of sustainable economic growth at the time of the change of system]

Author

Listed:
  • Erdős, Tibor

Abstract

A gazdasági növekedés ütemének Magyarországon tapasztalt beruházásigényessége kiindulópontul szolgál a növekedési képesség felbecsüléséhez. Az 1991-2001 közötti periódus adatai egymagukban mintegy 4,5 százalékos fenntartható ütemet valószínűsítenek. A reálisan várható ütem ennél lényegesen alacsonyabb lesz, mert elkerülhetetlen az infrastruktúra korszerűsítése, a mezőgazdaság szerkezeti átalakítása, emellett növelni kell a környezetvédelmi beruházásokat, és rendbe kell hozni az oktatást és az egészségügyet is. A jövőben kisebb mértékű külföldi forrásra lehet számítani az 1990-es évek második feléhez képest. A nettó háztartási megtakarítások aránya is mérséklődő irányzatot mutat. Egyszerre jelentkezik majd a beruházások számítható - makrogazdasági szintű - hatékonyságának csökkenése és a beruházási források mérséklődése. Mindezt csak részben ellensúlyozhatja az uniós csatlakozás forrásbővítő és hatékonyságot javító szerepe, ezért, a hosszabb távú, vagyis a fenntartható növekedés üteme aligha lehet nagyobb évi átlagban 3-3,5 százaléknál. Ez is csak akkor lehetséges, ha a csatlakozást követően, az EU által adott lehetőségeket jól használjuk ki, továbbá akkor, ha a szükséges reformokat a nagy elosztórendszerekben végrehajtjuk, és a növekedés beruházás- és exportvezérelt lesz. Az uniós átlaghoz való felzárkózás jóval hosszabb ideig tart, mint azt a politika reméli. Azonban a 3-3,5 százalékos növekedés is gyorsnak minősíthető, de csak akkor érhető el, ha azt a csupán hatalmi céloknak alárendelt belpolitikai küzdelem nem ássa alá. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E66, O11, O31, O38.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdős, Tibor, 2004. "Mekkora lehet Magyarországona fenntartható növekedés üteme? - II. A fenntartható gazdasági növekedés problémái a rendszerváltás idején [How high can Hungary’s sustainable growth grate be? II. Probl," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 530-559.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:687
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon, András & Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Tőkeállomány, megtakarítás és gazdasági növekedés [Capital stock, savings and economic growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 749-771.
    2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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