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Dezinflációs számítások dezaggregált kibocsátási résekre alapozó makromodellel
[Disinflation simulations with a disaggregated output gap-based model]

Author

Listed:
  • Várpalotai, Viktor

Abstract

A tanulmányban restriktív modellfeltevésekkel hasonlítjuk össze a különféle dezinflációs stratégiák, forgatókönyvek költségeit. A számításokhoz kiindulási alapként Benczúr-Simon-Várpalotai [2002] „kisméretű makromodellje” szolgál, amelynek aggregált kibocsátási rés elnevezésű változóját a GDP felhasználási tételeinek megfelelően bontottuk fel háztartások és kormányzat fogyasztására, beruházásra, exportra és importra. Az így előállt rések viselkedését leíró egyenleteket az 1991- 2002-es adatok felhasználásával becsültük meg. Az új, strukturáltabb modell segítségével kiszámítottuk különféle stratégiák költségeit és a hozzájuk szükséges dezinflációs periódusokat. Számításokat végeztünk a nominális felértékelődés és a fiskális lazítás hatásának a megállapítására, valamint egy olyan dezinfláció költségeinek a mérésére, ahol az erős árfolyam fiskális megszorításhoz kapcsolódik. Bár a kapott költségszámok - áldozati ráták - abszolút értékeit fenntartással kell kezelnünk, az egyes változatok összehasonlítása azonban egyértelmű üzenethez vezet: nemcsak gyorsabb, de olcsóbb is az olyan dezinfláció, amelyben a kereslet visszafogása párhuzamosan történik minden szektorban, vagyis a gazdaságpolitika monetáris és fiskális ága összehangoltan működik. Ha ez az összhang hiányzik, akkor a dezinfláció lassul és költségei növekednek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C53, E31, E32, E37.

Suggested Citation

  • Várpalotai, Viktor, 2003. "Dezinflációs számítások dezaggregált kibocsátási résekre alapozó makromodellel [Disinflation simulations with a disaggregated output gap-based model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 287-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:606
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
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    3. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 2019. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 3, pages 57-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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