IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/384.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hogyan segítheti elő a fiskális politika a valutaválságok megelőzését?
[How can fiscal policy help to avert currency crises?]

Author

Listed:
  • Kopits, György

Abstract

A tanulmány azoknak a feltörekvő piacú gazdaságoknak a válságperiódusait tekinti át, amelyek az 1990-es években rögzített - fix vagy előre bejelentett csúszó - árfolyamrendszert alkalmaztak. Ezekből az esetekből arra lehet következtetni, hogy nagyfokú tőkemobilitás esetén a jelentős államháztartási deficit - legyen az nyílt vagy rejtett -, illetve a piacnak a költségvetési politika fenntarthatóságában megingott bizalma sebezhetővé teszi ezeket a gazdaságokat a valutaválságokkal szemben. A tanulmány amellett érvel, hogy a jól ütemezett fiskális kiigazítás jelzése, amely kétségtelenné teszi az alapvető strukturális reformintézkedések alkalmazását, csökkenti a válság iránti érzékenységet. Ilyen értelemben az egyre több - feltörekvő piacú - gazdaságban bevezetett makroszintű fiskális szabályok hatékony eszközei lehetnek a valutaválságok megelőzésének.

Suggested Citation

  • Kopits, György, 2001. "Hogyan segítheti elő a fiskális politika a valutaválságok megelőzését? [How can fiscal policy help to avert currency crises?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 279-290.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:384
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=384
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
    6. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    7. Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis: Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 1999/138, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    9. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mr. George Kopits & Mr. Steven A. Symansky, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/011, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    13. Mr. Timothy D. Lane & Mrs. Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Mr. Tsidi M Tsikata & Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. A. J Hamann, 1999. "IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/006, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    16. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1999. "Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-4.
    17. repec:imf:imfops:1998/001 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Sugema, Iman, 2000. "Government bailouts and monetary disequilibrium: common fundamentals in the Mexican and East Asian currency crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 123-135, December.
    2. repec:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i::p:321-350 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Delphine Lahet, 2001. "L'occurrence d'une crise financière dans un modèle de troisième génération," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 179-206.
    4. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    6. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    7. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    8. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    9. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-350, July.
    10. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
    12. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40.
    13. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 110211, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    14. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    15. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    16. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
    17. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 2009. "Speculative attacks: A laboratory study in continuous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1064-1082, October.
    19. F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 541-572, April.
    20. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    21. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Odon Sok to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.