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A külkereskedelmi integráció becslések három kelet-közép-európai ország egyensúlyi külkereskedelmére
[Foreign-trade integration estimates for the equilibrium foreign trade of three East-Central European countries]

Author

Listed:
  • Jakab M., Zoltán
  • Kovács, Mihály András
  • Oszlay, András

Abstract

Tanulmányunkban három közép-kelet-európai ország: Csehország, Lengyelország és Magyarország külkereskedelmi integrációját vizsgáltuk az úgynevezett gravitáci-ós modell segítségével. Azt kutattuk, milyen mértékig tekinthető egyensúlyi folyamatnak a három gazdaság külkereskedelmének átstrukturálódása Keletről Nyugatra, és ezek a gazdaságok milyen közel jutottak külkereskedelmük egyensúlyi szintjéhez. Eredményeink szerint leggyorsabban Magyarország integrálódott az Európai Unióhoz mind az export, mind az import tekintetében. Csehországnak még jelentős kihasználatlan lehetőségei maradtak, Lengyelország EU-exportja pedig nem közelített az egyensúlyi szinthez. A más országcsoportokkal bonyolított külkereskedelmi forgalomban is igen különbözött az a sebesség, amellyel a három ország az egyensúlyi szintet közelítette. Ez megerősíti azt a hipotézist, hogy hasonlóságaik ellenére ezek a gazdaságok a piacgazdasági átalakulásuk folyamatában meglehetősen különböző külkereskedelmi pályákon mozogtak. Ez egyrészt az exportjuk termékstruktúrájának különbözőségével, másrészt az ezekben az országokban megvalósult külföldi működőtőke-befektetések eltérő hatásaival magyarázható.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakab M., Zoltán & Kovács, Mihály András & Oszlay, András, 2000. "A külkereskedelmi integráció becslések három kelet-közép-európai ország egyensúlyi külkereskedelmére [Foreign-trade integration estimates for the equilibrium foreign trade of three East-Central Eur," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 719-740.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:341
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "The Potential for Trade Between the Countries of EFTA and Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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