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Újabb eredmények a nyugdíjrendszerek modellezésében
[New results in modelling pension systems]

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  • Simonovits, András

Abstract

Egy korábbi dolgozatomban (Simonovits [1998a]) az új magyar nyugdíjrendszert és annak néhány kérdését elemeztem. Abban a cikkben célszerűnek láttam, hogy elkerüljem a matematikai modelleket, és csak röviden utaltam a modellezés eredményeire. Ebben a dolgozatban mintegy pótolom az akkori mulasztásokat, és a nyugdíjrendszerek modellezésében elért néhány újabb mások, illetve általam elért eredményt ismertetek, amelyek a következő kérdésekre válaszolnak. 1. Hogyan modellezhető az életciklus elmélettel a nyugdíjrendszer? 2. Hogyan módosul a tőkésített nyugdíjrendszer modellje hozamingadozások és működési költségek esetén? 3. Mi lenne a biztosításmatematikai szempontból tisztességes megoldás a rugalmas korhatárú társadalombiztosítási, rövidítve tb-nyugdíjrendszerben? 4. Milyen megtakarítás (és milyen kár) várható attól, hogy a már megállapított nyugdíjakat nemcsak a keresetek, hanem az árak figyelembevételével indexálják? 5. Milyen hatása lenne a nyugdíjrendszer hatékonyságára, ha a felosztó-kirovó rendszert részben vagy egészben felváltaná a tőkésített rendszer?

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András, 2000. "Újabb eredmények a nyugdíjrendszerek modellezésében [New results in modelling pension systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 487-508.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:335
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Augusztinovics, Mária, 1999. "Nyugdíjrendszerek és reformok az átmeneti gazdaságokban [Pension system and reforms in the transition economies]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 657-672.
    3. Simonovits, András, 1998. "Az új magyar nyugdíjrendszer és problémái [The new Hungarian pension system and its problems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 689-708.
    4. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
    5. Martos, Béla & Augusztinovics, Mária, 1995. "Számítások és következtetések nyugdíjreformra [The reform of the pension system: computations and conclusions]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 993-1023.
    6. Mr. Jan Walliser, 1999. "Regulation of Withdrawals in Individual Account Systems," IMF Working Papers 1999/153, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Social Security's Treatment of Postwar Americans. How Bad Can It Get?," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 207-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Palacios, Robert & Rocha, Roberto, 1998. "The Hungarian pension system in transition," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20048, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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