IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ütemvakság
[Phase blindness]

Author

Listed:
  • Boda, György
  • Virág, Imre

Abstract

A gazdaság növekedés felgyorsulása hosszú távon először szükségszerűen csak egy rövid helyreállítási perióduson keresztül valósulhat meg, amelynek során a növekedés ütemét a válságok miatt elmaradt vagy más okból elmulasztott növekedés pótlása gyorsítja fel. Ez azonban messze nem jelenti a hosszú távú növekedési ütem felgyorsulását. A jelenséget először Jánossy Ferenc írta le, akinek megállapításai ma is érvényesek: egy jelentős visszaesés, majd stagnálás után a növekedési ütem 2005 után visszaállt az 1980 óta kialakult 1,5 százalékos hosszú távú ütemre. A Jánossy-féle szakmastruktúra-tényező nem más, mint a tudástőke: a munkaképes lakosság személyes tudása, jártassága és motivációja. Ezek az összetevők egy újrafogalmazott termelési függvény emberi elemei számos új és már korábban is ismert tényező mellett. Az emberi erőforrások nyilvántartása nem kompetenciaalapú, és emiatt a hosszú távú növekedési ütem alacsony szintjét sem tudjuk megmagyarázni. A növekedési ütem ingadozásai mögött elsősorban gazdaságpolitikai hibákat, érdemeket keresünk, holott az emberi beruházások elégtelen szintje jelenti a problémát, amely a múlt örökségnek és a jelen terheinek súlya alatt nem oldódik meg automatikusan. A magyar gazdaság egy újabb helyreállítási periódus előtt áll, s a gazdasági átalakítás alapvető feladata a foglalkoztatható lakosság aktivizálása, enélkül minden növekedési gyorsulás csak átmeneti helyreállítási periódus marad. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, C22, E01, O11.

Suggested Citation

  • Boda, György & Virág, Imre, 2010. "Ütemvakság [Phase blindness]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1087-1104.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1209
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekker, Zsuzsa, 1995. "A trendvonalról a századvégen, avagy megszabadulhatunk-e múltunktól? [About the trendline at the end of the century, or: can we get rid of our past?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 420-430.
    2. Raymond W. Goldsmith & Robert E. Lipsey & Morris Mendelson, 1963. "Studies in the National Balance Sheet of the United States, Volume 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gold63-2, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Waldenström, 2016. "The national wealth of Sweden, 1810--2014," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(1), pages 36-54, March.
    2. Ana Rincon-Aznar & Rebecca Riley & Garry Young, 2017. "Academic Review of Asset Lives in the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 474, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    4. Joshua K. Hausman & Paul W. Rhode & Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 427-472, February.
    5. Luc De Wulf, 1974. "Alternative Methods of Taxing Realized and Unrealized Capital Gains," Public Finance Review, , vol. 2(4), pages 451-471, October.
    6. Robert E. Gallman, 1986. "The United States Capital Stock in the Nineteenth Century," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 165-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Charles W. Calomiris & Carlos D. Ramirez, 1996. "The Role Of Financial Relationships In The History Of American Corporate Finance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(2), pages 52-73, June.
    8. Jeffrey A. Miron & Christina D. Romer & David N. Weil, 1994. "Historical Perspectives on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 263-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Edward N. Wolff & Marcia Marley, 1989. "Long-Term Trends in U.S. Wealth Inequality: Methodological Issues and Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement of Saving, Investment, and Wealth, pages 765-844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. André A. Hofman, 2000. "The Economic Development of Latin America in the Twentieth Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1534.
    11. J. Revell, 1998. "Recollections of a late entrant," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(206), pages 231-245.
    12. Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2014. "China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 55-73.
    13. Robert E. Lipsey, 1992. "Foreign Direct Investment in the U.S.: Changes Over Three Decades," NBER Working Papers 4124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason, 1990. "Do Firms Care Who Provides Their Financing?," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 63-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might Have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing," Economics Working Papers 16113, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2023. "The 1932 Federal Reserve Open‐Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    17. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Three Remarks On Asset Pricing," Papers 2105.13903, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    18. J. Revell, 1998. "Recollections of a late entrant," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(206), pages 231-245.
    19. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1987. "New Directions in the Relationship Between Public and Private Debt," NBER Working Papers 2186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Robert Taggart, Jr, 1986. "Have U.S. Corporations Grown Financially Weak?," NBER Chapters, in: Financing Corporate Capital Formation, pages 13-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Odon Sok to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.