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Forintárfolyam, kamatszint és devizaalapú eladósodás. Az árfolyam szerepéről
[Forint exchange rates, interest levels and foreign currency-based debt. The role of the exchange rate]

Author

Listed:
  • Erdős, Tibor

Abstract

A tanulmány szerzője bemutatja, milyen tényezők vezettek a devizaalapú hitelek felduzzadására. A legmélyebben fekvő ok az állam tartós túlköltekezése, az ezt kísérő bérinfláció, valamint az így megjelenő tartós inflációs nyomás. Ennek megfékezésére az MNB úgy folytatott antiinflációs politikát, hogy a nominális kamat magas szinten tartása mellett a forintárfolyam fenntartására is törekedett. Ez együtt járt azzal, hogy sérült a kamatparitás elve, hiszen a forintkamatoknak a devizakamatokhoz képest sokkal magasabb színvonala ellenére sokáig nem kellett számolni a forint nominális leértékelődésével vagy leértékelésével. Ezt használták ki a külföldi pénzbefektetők és a hazai hitelfelvevők. Így a hosszú lejáratú hitelek hazai piacáról a forint szinte teljesen kiszorult, a belföldi monetáris szabályozás közel hatástalanná vált, a lakosság hitelfelvételét is a külső eladósodás növekedése kísérte, ami nagymértékben fokozta a gazdaság külső sebezhetőségét. Az adott helyzetben csak a tartósan túlértékelt forintárfolyam volt alkalmas - úgy ahogy - az infláció fékezésére, pedig nem ez a valutaárfolyam alapvető rendeltetése. A szerző szerint ezt a helyzetet el lehetett volna kerülni. Kezdettől fogva nem lett volna szabad a forintárfolyam fenntartására törekedni. Ekkor a devizaalapú hitelek nem duzzadtak volna fel, érvényesült volna a kamatparitás, a kamatpolitika pedig az infláció hatékony fékezőereje maradhatott volna. Paradox módon, a csökkenő forintárfolyam ellenére nem lett volna gyorsabb az infláció, a devizahitelek pedig ma nem okoznának gondot. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E42, E44, E52, E58, F31, F32, F34.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdős, Tibor, 2010. "Forintárfolyam, kamatszint és devizaalapú eladósodás. Az árfolyam szerepéről [Forint exchange rates, interest levels and foreign currency-based debt. The role of the exchange rate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 847-867.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1195
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, Paul, 1972. "A Keynesian View of Friedman's Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 864-882, Sept.-Oct.
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    3. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    4. Gordon, Robert J, 1977. "The Theory of Domestic Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 128-134, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vonnák, Dzsamila & Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya, 2017. "Monetáris politika és a bankok hitelkínálata. Vállalati adatokon alapuló elemzés [Monetary policy and bank-loan supply: evidence from firm-level analysis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 217-237.
    2. Simonovits, András & Király, Júlia, 2015. "Jelzáloghitel-törlesztés forintban és devizában - egyszerű modellek [Servicing mortgage loans in forints and in foreign currency: simple models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-26.
    3. Magas, István, 2011. "Financial liberalisation – The dilemmas of national adaptation," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(2), pages 214-240.
    4. Dedák, István, 2012. "Adósságválság, tőkeáttétel és adósságdinamika [Debt crisis, capital transfer and debt dynamics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-780.
    5. Pitz, Mónika & Schepp, Zoltán, 2013. "Determinants of the Pricing of Bank Loans: a Structural VAR Based Analysis," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(4), pages 420-433.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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