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Forintárfolyam, kamatszint és devizaalapú eladósodás. Az árfolyam szerepéről
[Forint exchange rates, interest levels and foreign currency-based debt. The role of the exchange rate]

Author

Listed:
  • Erdős, Tibor

Abstract

A tanulmány szerzője bemutatja, milyen tényezők vezettek a devizaalapú hitelek felduzzadására. A legmélyebben fekvő ok az állam tartós túlköltekezése, az ezt kísérő bérinfláció, valamint az így megjelenő tartós inflációs nyomás. Ennek megfékezésére az MNB úgy folytatott antiinflációs politikát, hogy a nominális kamat magas szinten tartása mellett a forintárfolyam fenntartására is törekedett. Ez együtt járt azzal, hogy sérült a kamatparitás elve, hiszen a forintkamatoknak a devizakamatokhoz képest sokkal magasabb színvonala ellenére sokáig nem kellett számolni a forint nominális leértékelődésével vagy leértékelésével. Ezt használták ki a külföldi pénzbefektetők és a hazai hitelfelvevők. Így a hosszú lejáratú hitelek hazai piacáról a forint szinte teljesen kiszorult, a belföldi monetáris szabályozás közel hatástalanná vált, a lakosság hitelfelvételét is a külső eladósodás növekedése kísérte, ami nagymértékben fokozta a gazdaság külső sebezhetőségét. Az adott helyzetben csak a tartósan túlértékelt forintárfolyam volt alkalmas - úgy ahogy - az infláció fékezésére, pedig nem ez a valutaárfolyam alapvető rendeltetése. A szerző szerint ezt a helyzetet el lehetett volna kerülni. Kezdettől fogva nem lett volna szabad a forintárfolyam fenntartására törekedni. Ekkor a devizaalapú hitelek nem duzzadtak volna fel, érvényesült volna a kamatparitás, a kamatpolitika pedig az infláció hatékony fékezőereje maradhatott volna. Paradox módon, a csökkenő forintárfolyam ellenére nem lett volna gyorsabb az infláció, a devizahitelek pedig ma nem okoznának gondot. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E42, E44, E52, E58, F31, F32, F34.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdős, Tibor, 2010. "Forintárfolyam, kamatszint és devizaalapú eladósodás. Az árfolyam szerepéről [Forint exchange rates, interest levels and foreign currency-based debt. The role of the exchange rate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 847-867.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1195
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    2. Davidson, Paul, 1972. "A Keynesian View of Friedman's Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 864-882, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Gordon, Robert J, 1977. "The Theory of Domestic Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 128-134, February.
    4. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pitz, Mónika & Schepp, Zoltán, 2013. "Determinants of the Pricing of Bank Loans: a Structural VAR Based Analysis," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(4), pages 420-433.
    2. Magas, István, 2011. "Financial liberalisation – The dilemmas of national adaptation," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(2), pages 214-240.
    3. Vonnák, Dzsamila & Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya, 2017. "Monetáris politika és a bankok hitelkínálata. Vállalati adatokon alapuló elemzés [Monetary policy and bank-loan supply: evidence from firm-level analysis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 217-237.
    4. Dedák, István, 2012. "Adósságválság, tőkeáttétel és adósságdinamika [Debt crisis, capital transfer and debt dynamics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-780.
    5. Simonovits, András & Király, Júlia, 2015. "Jelzáloghitel-törlesztés forintban és devizában - egyszerű modellek [Servicing mortgage loans in forints and in foreign currency: simple models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-26.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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