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Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007)
[Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market crisis (1997-2007)]

Author

Listed:
  • Magas, István

Abstract

A tanulmány nem az aktuális hitelpiaci válság enyhítésének kérdésével foglalkozik, hanem az amerikai gazdaság elmúlt négy évtizedének általános és az utolsó tíz évének konkrét beruházási-megtakarítási és növekedési tendenciáit igyekszik feltárni. Azt vizsgálja, hogy milyen mélyebb, belföldi eredetű szerkezeti okai vannak a nemzetközivé dagadt jelzáloghitel-válságnak. A cikk a nyitott gazdaság külső finanszírozással összefüggő mérlegazonosságainak alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy az ingatlanpiaci visszaesés és a kibocsátás zsugorodása az Egyesült Államok gazdaságában már több mint másfél évtizede kialakult kedvezőtlen, de még tovább romló belföldi megtakarítási folyamatok következménye. A jelzálogpiac krízise és a lakásépítés drámai visszaesése a túlfogyasztásra és túlhitelezésre ösztönző pénzügyi környezet eredménye. A lakáspiaci és a hitelezési ciklusok pénzügyi innovációkkal történő megnyújtása inkább növelte, mint csökkentette a kibocsátásingadozás érzékenységét. A legfőbb hitelezők Kína, Japán, Németország inkább dolláralapú amerikai vállalati felvásárlásokkal ellensúlyozták a dollárgyengülésből elszenvedett veszteségeiket. 1997-2007 között az Amerikából külföldön befektetett dolláraktívák - javarészt a valuta leértékelődése nyomán - jelentős hozamemelkedést élveztek, és számottevően tompították a belföldön képződött jövedelmek csökkenését. A dollárleértékelődés az eszköz- (és nemcsak az áruexport) oldalon is előnyöket hozott számos nagyvállalatnak. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E20, E32, F34.

Suggested Citation

  • Magas, István, 2008. "Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007) [Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market c," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 987-1009.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1056
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    2. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    3. Karen E Dynan & Donald L Kohn, 2007. "The Rise in US Household Indebtedness: Causes and Consequences," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.),The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Spendthrift nation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov10.
    5. István Magas, 2004. "The American Economy and Its Global Links: New and Reborn Concerns," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 26(1), pages 1-40, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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