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Revisiting Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach

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  • Ojonugwa Usman
  • Muhammad Sani Musa

Abstract

This study revisits the extent of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) in Nigeria based on a Cointegrated Autoregressive Model proposed by Johansen (1988, 1995). Using the annual data from 1960 to 2015, it is found that exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on consumer price inflation, captured by CPI both in the short- and long-run dynamics. The findings also show that import price index and trade openness index have positive and significant effects on consumer price inflation; although the effect of import price index is statistically flawed in the short-run. The implication of this study, therefore, is that exchange rate, import price index and trade openness index are the major determinants of consumer price inflation in the long-run but in the short-run the effect of import price index is blunted.

Suggested Citation

  • Ojonugwa Usman & Muhammad Sani Musa, 2018. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 60-67, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:khe:scajes:v:4:y:2018:i:1:p:60-67
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate pass‐through in BRICS countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 188-233, January.
    3. Mehmet BALCILAR & Ojonugwa USMAN & Muhammad Sani MUSA, 2020. "The Long-Run and Short-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through during the Period of Economic Reforms in Nigeria: Is it Complete or Incomplete?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 151-172, March.
    4. Ojonugwa Usman & Osama Mohammed Elsalih, 2018. "Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    5. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami & Sallahuddin Hassan & Mohamad Helmi Bin Hidthiir, 2020. "Assessing the Asymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in West African Commonwealth Countries," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 93-109, March.
    6. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Testing the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate and Oil Price Pass-Through in BRICS Countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," Working Papers 15-49, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    8. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami, 2020. "Revisiting the West African Commonwealth Countries’ Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 70-77, March.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Esther Abdul Agbede, 2019. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through to Inflation in Africa’s Two Largest Economies: Nigeria and South Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 245-257, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Consumer Price Index; Cointegrated Autoregressive Model; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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