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Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy

Author

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  • Oladipo Olajide

    (Adelphi University)

Abstract

The exchange rate pass-through for Nigeria imports is estimated by applying an econometric procedure to sectoral data which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies. We use the mark-up approach, which implies setting export prices as a mark-up on production costs. So, the price facing importers is the exchange rate adjusted production costs where mark-up depends on the competitive pressures in the import's market and the nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate incomplete pass-through at varying degrees across sectors, which implies that the foreign exporters passed on only part of the increase in their costs of production to import prices. Also, it reveals that the effort of the Nigerian government in encouraging companies to use local inputs where possible instead of relying on imported intermediate inputs is gradually yielding positive results. Important policy implications that follow from our results of incomplete pass-through to domestic prices could influence CBN forecasts of future path of inflation, a key element in the conduct of monetary policy. Indeed, the successful implementation of monetary policy presupposes that CBN has not only a good understanding of inflation dynamics but is also relatively successful at predicting the future path of inflation. Also, our results imply that the exchange rate policy may be a blunt instrument when used to restore external balance since relative price adjustments will be limited. Furthermore, the incomplete pass-through suggests that exchange rate changes are likely to lead to smaller real effects on the economy through lower changes in both the terms of trade and import volumes and finally, the extent of inflation (deflation) effects of exchange rate depreciation (appreciation) operating through changes in the prices of imported goods will be moderated.

Suggested Citation

  • Oladipo Olajide, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:7:y:2007:i:3:n:4
    DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1246
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sweidan Osama D., 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices in Jordan," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 109-128, January.
    2. M. Abimbola Oyinlola & M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2009. "A Bound Testing Analysis Of Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Aggregate Import Prices In Nigeria: 1980-2006," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 97-109, December.
    3. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Paper Series 245, African Development Bank.
    4. Ojonugwa Usman & Muhammad Sani Musa, 2018. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 60-67, March.
    5. Kamel Helali & Maha Kalai, 2015. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Tunisia: a short- and long-run analysis," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 282-301.
    6. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers wp218, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Mehmet BALCILAR & Ojonugwa USMAN & Muhammad Sani MUSA, 2020. "The Long-Run and Short-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through during the Period of Economic Reforms in Nigeria: Is it Complete or Incomplete?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 151-172, March.

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