IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v51y2024i4d10.1007_s11116-022-10350-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Synthetic control methods for estimating the effect of purchase incentives on plug-in electric vehicles sales in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Haobing Liu

    (Tongji University)

  • Daejin Kim

    (Gangneung-Wonju National University)

  • Hanyan Li

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Michael O. Rodgers

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Randall Guensler

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This study applied a synthetic control method (SCM) to investigate the impacts of state electric vehicle purchase incentives implemented in the United States between 2011 and 2018. The goal was to develop a model to replicate the impacts of PEV (plug-in electric vehicle) incentives on vehicle sales given the socio-economic characteristics of the treatment states. The goodness-of-fit between trajectories reproduced by SCM and the corresponding treatment region provides a clear means of visualizing the effectiveness of the model and results. For example, the results show that Georgia income tax credits appear to have induced 17,000 BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales between January 2011 and July 2015. The SCM analysis was also applied to other states, showing that the SCM methodology can represent PEV sales in many states in the United States. Accordingly, the modeling results suggest that incentives implemented in some U.S. states were effective in promoting PEV sales. The study also concluded that the SCM with a weighting factor between 0 and 1 (i.e., extrapolation avoided) may not be the approach of a choice for the states whose demographic/economic attributes significantly deviate from the control regions, or the states that implement “unique” programs, because there are insufficient system data for counterfactual analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Haobing Liu & Daejin Kim & Hanyan Li & Michael O. Rodgers & Randall Guensler, 2024. "Synthetic control methods for estimating the effect of purchase incentives on plug-in electric vehicles sales in the United States," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1209-1238, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:51:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11116-022-10350-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-022-10350-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-022-10350-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-022-10350-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
    2. Langbroek, Joram H.M. & Franklin, Joel P. & Susilo, Yusak O., 2016. "The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-103.
    3. Shanjun Li & Lang Tong & Jianwei Xing & Yiyi Zhou, 2017. "The Market for Electric Vehicles: Indirect Network Effects and Policy Design," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 89-133.
    4. Gallagher, Kelly Sims & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Wee, Sherilyn & Coffman, Makena & La Croix, Sumner, 2018. "Do electric vehicle incentives matter? Evidence from the 50 U.S. states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1601-1610.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    7. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    8. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    9. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    10. Noémi Kreif & Richard Grieve & Dominik Hangartner & Alex James Turner & Silviya Nikolova & Matt Sutton, 2016. "Examination of the Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Health Policies with Multiple Treated Units," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1514-1528, December.
    11. Alemi, Farzad & Rodier, Caroline & Drake, Christiana, 2018. "Cruising and on-street parking pricing: A difference-in-difference analysis of measured parking search time and distance in San Francisco," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 187-198.
    12. Münzel, Christiane & Plötz, Patrick & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till, 2019. "How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    14. Vergis, Sydney & Chen, Belinda, 2015. "Comparison of plug-in electric vehicle adoption in the United States: A state by state approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 56-64.
    15. Leard, Benjamin & Li, Shanjun & Xing, Jianwei, 2019. "What Does an Electric Vehicle Replace?," RFF Working Paper Series 19-05, Resources for the Future.
    16. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2006. "The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 131-159, April.
    17. Clinton, Bentley C. & Steinberg, Daniel C., 2019. "Providing the Spark: Impact of financial incentives on battery electric vehicle adoption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Hardman, Scott & Chandan, Amrit & Tal, Gil & Turrentine, Tom, 2017. "The effectiveness of financial purchase incentives for battery electric vehicles – A review of the evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1100-1111.
    19. Jianwei Xing & Benjamin Leard & Shanjun Li, 2019. "What Does an Electric Vehicle Replace?," NBER Working Papers 25771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    2. Jeremy Dijk & Nathan Delacrétaz & Bruno Lanz, 2022. "Technology Adoption and Early Network Infrastructure Provision in the Market for Electric Vehicles," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 631-679, November.
    3. Alali, Layla & Niesten, Eva & Gagliardi, Dimitri, 2022. "The impact of UK financial incentives on the adoption of electric fleets: The moderation effect of GDP change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 200-220.
    4. Martin Kalthaus & Jiatang Sun, 2021. "Determinants of Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 473-510, November.
    5. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    6. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    7. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    8. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    9. Robert Kraemer & Jonne Lehtimäki, 2024. "Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1112-1157, August.
    10. Cummins Joseph & Miller Douglas L. & Smith Brock & Simon David, 2024. "Matching on Noise: Finite Sample Bias in the Synthetic Control Estimator," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 67-95, January.
    11. Diego D'iaz & Pablo Paniagua & Cristi'an Larroulet, 2024. "Earthquakes and the wealth of nations: The cases of Chile and New Zealand," Papers 2405.12041, arXiv.org.
    12. Burra, Lavan T. & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2024. "Free-ridership in subsidies for company- and private electric vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Burra, Lavan T. & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Free-Ridership in Subsidies for Company- and Private Electric Vehicles," Ruhr Economic Papers 1015, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Haidar, Bassem & Aguilar Rojas, Maria Teresa, 2022. "The relationship between public charging infrastructure deployment and other socio-economic factors and electric vehicle adoption in France," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Guillaume Allaire Pouliot & Zhen Xie, 2022. "Degrees of Freedom and Information Criteria for the Synthetic Control Method," Papers 2207.02943, arXiv.org.
    17. Matej Opatrny, 2021. "The impact of the Brexit vote on UK financial markets: a synthetic control method approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 559-587, May.
    18. Münzel, Christiane & Plötz, Patrick & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till, 2019. "How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    20. Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:51:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11116-022-10350-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.