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Expected return—expected loss approach to optimal portfolio investment

Author

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  • Pavlo Blavatskyy

    (Montpellier Business School)

Abstract

Standard models of portfolio investment rely on various statistical measures of dispersion. Such measures favor returns smoothed over all states of the world and penalize abnormally low as well as abnormally high returns. A model of portfolio investment based on the tradeoff between expected return and expected loss considers only abnormally low returns as undesirable. Such a model has a comparative advantage over other existing models in that a first-order stochastically dominant portfolio always has a higher expected return and a lower expected loss. Expected return—expected loss model of portfolio investment can rationalize the equity premium puzzle. Two random variables are not comoving if there is at least one state of the world in which one random variable yields a positive return and the other—a negative return. Such random variables provide hedging benefits from diversification in portfolio investment according to the expected return—expected loss model. A special case of this model, when an investor linearly trade-offs expected returns and expected losses, is also a special case of the prospect theory when a decision-maker has a piece-wise linear value function without any probability weighting.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2023. "Expected return—expected loss approach to optimal portfolio investment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 63-81, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:94:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-022-09870-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-022-09870-3
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