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Three doors anomaly, “should I stay, or should I go”: an artefactual field experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Morone

    (Management and Business Law, Bari University “Aldo Moro”)

  • Rocco Caferra

    (Management and Business Law, Bari University “Aldo Moro”
    Universitat Jaume I)

  • Alessia Casamassima

    (Management and Business Law, Bari University “Aldo Moro”)

  • Alessandro Cascavilla

    (Management and Business Law, Bari University “Aldo Moro”
    Universitat Jaume I)

  • Paola Tiranzoni

    (Management and Business Law, Bari University “Aldo Moro”)

Abstract

This work aims to identify and quantify the biases behind the anomalous behavior of people when they deal with the Three Doors dilemma, which is a really simple but counterintuitive game. Carrying out an artefactual field experiment and proposing eight different treatments to isolate the anomalies, we provide new interesting experimental evidence on the reasons why subjects fail to take the optimal decision. According to the experimental results, we are able to quantify the size and the impact of three main biases that explain the anomalous behavior of participants: Bayesian updating, illusion of control and status quo bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Morone & Rocco Caferra & Alessia Casamassima & Alessandro Cascavilla & Paola Tiranzoni, 2021. "Three doors anomaly, “should I stay, or should I go”: an artefactual field experiment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 91(3), pages 357-376, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:91:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11238-021-09809-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-021-09809-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohammed Abdellaoui & John D. Hey (ed.), 2008. "Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty," Theory and Decision Library C, Springer, number 978-3-540-68437-4, September.
    2. Slembeck, Tilman & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2004. "Do institutions promote rationality?: An experimental study of the three-door anomaly," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-350, July.
    3. Richard D. Gill, 2011. "The Monty Hall problem is not a probability puzzle (It's a challenge in mathematical modelling)," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 58-71, February.
    4. Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2003. "Learning to Open Monty Hall's Doors," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(3), pages 235-251, November.
    5. Friedman, Daniel, 1998. "Monty Hall's Three Doors: Construction and Deconstruction of a Choice Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 933-946, September.
    6. Andrea Morone & Annamaria Fiore, 2007. "Monty Hall's Three Doors for Dummies," SERIES 0012, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Feb 2007.
    7. repec:spr:thdchp:978-3-540-68437-4_10 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jan C. Schuller, 2012. "The malicious host: a minimax solution of the Monty Hall problem," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 215-221, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Morone, Andrea & Santorsola, Marco & Tiranzoni, Paola, 2021. "Deal or no deal: comparing individual, group and couple choices in a risky context. Evidence from the Italian tv show edition," MPRA Paper 110618, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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