IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/theord/v82y2017i1d10.1007_s11238-016-9555-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-induced discounting

Author

Listed:
  • Marc St-Pierre

    (University of the South)

Abstract

We establish a direct connection between time preference and risk about an attribute (health) of the instantaneous utility function. In doing so, we derive a risk-induced discount function that corresponds to a normalized expectation of that attribute. We provide several results characterizing this risk-induced discount function depending on the stochastic properties of the risk, which we model as a discrete Markov process. When it is well-defined, which we refer to as full approximation, the risk-induced discount function coincides with exponential discounting if the Markov process is stationary. However, a slight perturbation of the beliefs can trigger time-inconsistent discounting. When considering non-stationary Markov processes, time-inconsistency also emerges in situations where individuals’ beliefs change in a non-anticipated fashion over time, as exemplified by quasi-hyperbolic discounting. Results are illustrated via several applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc St-Pierre, 2017. "Risk-induced discounting," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 82(1), pages 13-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:82:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-016-9555-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-016-9555-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11238-016-9555-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11238-016-9555-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manel Baucells & Franz H. Heukamp, 2012. "Probability and Time Trade-Off," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(4), pages 831-842, April.
    2. H. Stuart Burness, 1976. "A Note on Consistent Naive Intertemporal Decision Making and an Application to the Case of Uncertain Lifetime," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 43(3), pages 547-549.
    3. Antoine Bommier, 2006. "Uncertain Lifetime And Intertemporal Choice: Risk Aversion As A Rationale For Time Discounting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1223-1246, November.
    4. Gary S. Becker & Casey B. Mulligan, 1997. "The Endogenous Determination of Time Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 729-758.
    5. Yoram Halevy, 2008. "Strotz Meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1145-1162, June.
    6. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    7. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    8. Bleichrodt, Han & Quiggin, John, 1999. "Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 681-708, December.
    9. Epstein, Larry G., 1983. "Stationary cardinal utility and optimal growth under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 133-152, October.
    10. Azfar, Omar, 1999. "Rationalizing hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 245-252, February.
    11. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Samuel E. Bodily, 2012. "Multiplicative Utilities for Health and Consumption," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 314-328, December.
    12. Matthew Sobel, 2013. "Discounting axioms imply risk neutrality," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 208(1), pages 417-432, September.
    13. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    14. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
    15. T. Ermolieva & Y. Ermoliev & G. Fischer & M. Makowski, 2010. "Induced Discounting and Risk Management," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Kurt Marti & Yuri Ermoliev & Marek Makowski (ed.), Coping with Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 59-77, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniele Pennesi, 2017. "Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 315-336, October.
    2. repec:ubc:pmicro:halevy-04-10-29-10-08-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Drouhin, Nicolas, 2020. "Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Yoram Halevy, 2008. "Strotz Meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1145-1162, June.
    5. Yoram Halevy, 2004. "Diminishing Impatience: Disentangling Time Preference from Uncertain Lifetime," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000185, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Hammond, Peter J & Zank, Horst, 2013. "Rationality and Dynamic Consistency under Risk and Uncertainty," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1033, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Lemoine, Derek, 2018. "Age-induced acceleration of time: Implications for intertemporal choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 143-152.
    8. Mark Schneider, 2018. "A Dual System Model of Risk and Time Preferences," Working Papers 18-18, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    9. Marco Casari & Davide Dragone, 2015. "Choice reversal without temptation: A dynamic experiment on time preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 119-140, April.
    10. Mark Schneider, 2016. "Dual Process Utility Theory: A Model of Decisions Under Risk and Over Time," Working Papers 16-23, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    11. Takeuchi, Kan, 2011. "Non-parametric test of time consistency: Present bias and future bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 456-478, March.
    12. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
    13. Arthur E. Attema & Han Bleichrodt & Kirsten I. M. Rohde & Peter P. Wakker, 2010. "Time-Tradeoff Sequences for Analyzing Discounting and Time Inconsistency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2015-2030, November.
    14. Nicolas Drouhin, 2012. "A rank-dependent utility model of uncertain lifetime, time consistency and life insurance," Working Papers halshs-00748662, HAL.
    15. Walther, Herbert, 2010. "Anomalies in intertemporal choice, time-dependent uncertainty and expected utility - A common approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 114-130, February.
    16. Jinrui Pan & Craig S. Webb & Horst Zank, 2019. "Delayed probabilistic risk attitude: a parametric approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 201-232, September.
    17. Méder, Zsombor Z. & Flesch, János & Peeters, Ronald, 2017. "Naiveté and sophistication in dynamic inconsistency," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 40-54.
    18. Sanghoon K Lee, 2015. "Disability Risk and Hyperbolic Discounting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 371-380.
    19. Ryan Edwards, 2013. "The cost of uncertain life span," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1485-1522, October.
    20. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Enrico Diecidue & Olivier l’Haridon, 2017. "Patience and time consistency in collective decisions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 181-208, March.
    21. Anke Gerber & Kirsten I. M. Rohde, 2018. "Weighted temporal utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(1), pages 187-212, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:82:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-016-9555-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.