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The implied growth rates and country risk premium: evidence from Chinese stock markets

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  • Pengguo Wang
  • Wei Huang

Abstract

Realized stock market returns are volatile and poor reflections of economic growth and investor expectations in China. In this paper, we estimate simultaneously the implied long run growth rate and cost of equity capital for listed Chinese firms over the period 2004–2012. We find that the implied mean growth rate in earnings is around 10 % and the mean implied cost of capital is about 14.6 %. These suggest that the implied growth rates from companies’ fundamentals are in line with the economic growth and the implied cost of capital is consistent with investors’ expectations. Comparing with estimates for the US markets, we find that the mean country equity risk premium for this largest emerging market is about 6.5 %. Our study has important implications to the Chinese policy makers and international investors. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

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  • Pengguo Wang & Wei Huang, 2015. "The implied growth rates and country risk premium: evidence from Chinese stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 641-663, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:45:y:2015:i:3:p:641-663
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-014-0450-8
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    2. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long term growth; Cost of capital; Country risk premium; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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