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The earned income tax credit and union formation: The impact of expected spouse earnings

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  • Katherine Michelmore

    (Syracuse University)

Abstract

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation from 2001, 2004, and 2008 and federal and state variation in earned income tax credit generosity over time, I investigate how changes in expected household earned income tax credit benefits associated with marriage affect cohabitation and marriage behavior among low-income single mothers. I simulate a marriage market to predict potential spouse earnings for a sample of single mothers in order to estimate the potential losses or gains in earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage. Using multinomial logistic regressions, I then analyze how the anticipated loss in earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage affects the likelihood of marrying or cohabiting. Results suggest that the average earned income tax credit-eligible woman can expect to lose approximately US$1,300 in earned income tax credit benefits in the year following marriage, or about half of pre-marriage benefits. Single mothers who expect to lose earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage are 2.5 percentage points less likely to marry their partners and 2.5 percentage points more likely to cohabit compared to single mothers who expect no change or to gain earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage. Despite recent policy efforts to reduce the size of the marriage penalty embedded in the earned income tax credit structure, these results suggest that the earned income tax credit still creates distortions in marriage and cohabitation decisions among low-income single mothers.

Suggested Citation

  • Katherine Michelmore, 2018. "The earned income tax credit and union formation: The impact of expected spouse earnings," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 377-406, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:16:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11150-016-9348-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11150-016-9348-7
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    Cited by:

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    2. Leora Friedberg & Elliott Isaac, 2023. "Marriage in Old Age: What Can We Learn About Policy Impacts on Same-Sex Couples?," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 679-706.
    3. Kaitlyn M. Sims & Yang Wang & Barbara Wolfe, 2024. "Estimating impacts of the US EITC program on domestic violence," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1483-1513, December.
    4. Isaac, Elliott & Jiang, Haibin, 2022. "Tax-Based Marriage Incentives in the Affordable Care Act," IZA Discussion Papers 15331, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Margaret Gough Courtney, 2023. "Did the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid Expansion Change Cohabitation Trends?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Elira Kuka & Na'ama Shenhav, 2024. "Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work after Childbirth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1692-1722, June.
    7. Nicardo S. McInnis & Katherine Michelmore & Natasha Pilkauskas, 2023. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty and Public Assistance: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Working Papers 31429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Neumark, David & Shirley, Peter, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Women's Labor Market Outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Khanal, Binod, 2020. "Cash transfers and consumption of healthy and unhealthy food: evidence from tax refunds," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304346, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Elliott Isaac, 2020. "Marriage, Divorce, and Social Safety Net Policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1576-1612, April.
    11. Pinka Chatterji & Xiangshi Liu & Barış K. Yörük, 2019. "The effects of the 2010 Affordable Care Act dependent care provision on family structure and public program participation among young adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1133-1161, December.
    12. James Alm & J. Sebastian Leguizamon & Susane Leguizamon, 2023. "Race, Ethnicity, and Taxation of the Family: The Many Shades of the Marriage Penalty/Bonus," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 525-560.
    13. Natasha Pilkauskas & Katherine Michelmore, 2019. "The Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Housing and Living Arrangements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1303-1326, August.
    14. Otto Lenhart, 2019. "The effects of income on health: new evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 377-410, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earned income tax credit; Marriage; Cohabitation; Marriage penalties;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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