IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revdev/v25y2022i2d10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil futures volatility smiles in 2020: Why the bachelier smile is flatter

Author

Listed:
  • Roza Galeeva

    (NYU Tandon School of Engineering)

  • Ehud Ronn

    (University of Texas)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the response of the oil-futures option market to the onset of severe conditions in the aftermath of Feb. 15, 2020. Motivated in part by the decline of the WTI futures contract into negative territory on April 20, 2020, for the derivative market on oil futures we consider an analytical contrast between the traditional Black model and its long-ago predecessor, the Bachelier model. Under 2020 crash conditions, the Bachelier model performs better than Black, displaying a significantly flatter vol smile. Based in part on previous published research for short-dated maturities , the rationale for this difference is built on the contrast between between implied Black and Bachelier volatilities. Other than for extreme strikes and high Black vols, we show that the rapport works well in a wider range of maturities and volatilities. Using options data over the year 2020, we explore a notion of normalized strike to measure quantitatively the vol skew.

Suggested Citation

  • Roza Galeeva & Ehud Ronn, 2022. "Oil futures volatility smiles in 2020: Why the bachelier smile is flatter," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 173-187, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:25:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean‐Michel Courtault & Yuri Kabanov & Bernard Bru & Pierre Crépel & Isabelle Lebon & Arnaud Le Marchand, 2000. "Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Théorie de la Spéculation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 339-353, July.
    2. Marco Avellaneda & Sasha Stoikov, 2008. "High-frequency trading in a limit order book," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 217-224.
    3. Bo Zhao & Stewart Hodges, 2013. "Parametric modeling of implied smile functions: a generalized SVI model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 53-77, April.
    4. Michael Roper & Marek Rutkowski, 2009. "On The Relationship Between The Call Price Surface And The Implied Volatility Surface Close To Expiry," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 427-441.
    5. Carr, Peter & Madan, Dilip B., 2005. "A note on sufficient conditions for no arbitrage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 125-130, September.
    6. Cyril Grunspan, 2011. "Asymptotic Expansions of the Lognormal Implied Volatility : A Model Free Approach," Papers 1112.1652, arXiv.org.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2059-2106 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elisa Al`os & Eulalia Nualart & Makar Pravosud, 2023. "On the implied volatility of European and Asian call options under the stochastic volatility Bachelier model," Papers 2308.15341, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    2. Cyril Grunspan & Joris van der Hoeven, 2017. "Effective asymptotic analysis for finance," Working Papers hal-01573621, HAL.
    3. Cyril Grunspan & Joris van der Hoeven, 2020. "Effective asymptotic analysis for finance," Post-Print hal-01573621, HAL.
    4. Itkin, Andrey, 2015. "To sigmoid-based functional description of the volatility smile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 264-291.
    5. Cyril Grunspan, 2011. "A Note on the Equivalence between the Normal and the Lognormal Implied Volatility : A Model Free Approach," Papers 1112.1782, arXiv.org.
    6. Hirbod Assa & Mostafa Pouralizadeh & Abdolrahim Badamchizadeh, 2019. "Sound Deposit Insurance Pricing Using a Machine Learning Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Campi, Luciano & Zabaljauregui, Diego, 2020. "Optimal market making under partial information with general intensities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104612, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Mahmoud Mahfouz & Angelos Filos & Cyrine Chtourou & Joshua Lockhart & Samuel Assefa & Manuela Veloso & Danilo Mandic & Tucker Balch, 2019. "On the Importance of Opponent Modeling in Auction Markets," Papers 1911.12816, arXiv.org.
    9. Kanamura, Takashi & Bunn, Derek W., 2022. "Market making and electricity price formation in Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    10. Fengpei Li & Vitalii Ihnatiuk & Ryan Kinnear & Anderson Schneider & Yuriy Nevmyvaka, 2022. "Do price trajectory data increase the efficiency of market impact estimation?," Papers 2205.13423, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    11. Yang, Qing-Qing & Ching, Wai-Ki & Gu, Jia-Wen & Siu, Tak-Kuen, 2018. "Market-making strategy with asymmetric information and regime-switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 408-433.
    12. Francesco Caravenna & Jacopo Corbetta, 2015. "The asymptotic smile of a multiscaling stochastic volatility model," Papers 1501.03387, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    13. Kun Gao & Roger Lee, 2014. "Asymptotics of implied volatility to arbitrary order," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 349-392, April.
    14. Philippe Bergault & Olivier Gu'eant, 2023. "Liquidity Dynamics in RFQ Markets and Impact on Pricing," Papers 2309.04216, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    15. Thomas Spooner & Rahul Savani, 2020. "Robust Market Making via Adversarial Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2003.01820, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    16. Christoph Kuhn & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2013. "Optimal Liquidity Provision," Papers 1309.5235, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    17. Antonio Briola & Silvia Bartolucci & Tomaso Aste, 2024. "Deep Limit Order Book Forecasting," Papers 2403.09267, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    18. Enrique Ter Horst & Abel Rodriguez & Henryk Gzyl & German Molina, 2012. "Stochastic volatility models including open, close, high and low prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 199-212, May.
    19. Stergios B. Fotopoulos & Alex Paparas & Venkata K. Jandhyala, 2020. "Rejoinder to “Multivariate generalized hyperbolic laws for modeling financial log returns: Empirical and theoretical considerations”," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 780-782, September.
    20. A. Lykov & S. Muzychka & K. Vaninsky, 2012. "Investor's sentiment in multi-agent model of the continuous double auction," Papers 1208.3083, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:25:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.