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Oil futures volatility smiles in 2020: Why the bachelier smile is flatter

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  • Roza Galeeva

    (NYU Tandon School of Engineering)

  • Ehud Ronn

    (University of Texas)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the response of the oil-futures option market to the onset of severe conditions in the aftermath of Feb. 15, 2020. Motivated in part by the decline of the WTI futures contract into negative territory on April 20, 2020, for the derivative market on oil futures we consider an analytical contrast between the traditional Black model and its long-ago predecessor, the Bachelier model. Under 2020 crash conditions, the Bachelier model performs better than Black, displaying a significantly flatter vol smile. Based in part on previous published research for short-dated maturities , the rationale for this difference is built on the contrast between between implied Black and Bachelier volatilities. Other than for extreme strikes and high Black vols, we show that the rapport works well in a wider range of maturities and volatilities. Using options data over the year 2020, we explore a notion of normalized strike to measure quantitatively the vol skew.

Suggested Citation

  • Roza Galeeva & Ehud Ronn, 2022. "Oil futures volatility smiles in 2020: Why the bachelier smile is flatter," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 173-187, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:25:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-022-09185-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-022-09185-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cyril Grunspan, 2011. "Asymptotic Expansions of the Lognormal Implied Volatility : A Model Free Approach," Papers 1112.1652, arXiv.org.
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    3. Jean‐Michel Courtault & Yuri Kabanov & Bernard Bru & Pierre Crépel & Isabelle Lebon & Arnaud Le Marchand, 2000. "Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Théorie de la Spéculation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 339-353, July.
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    7. Bo Zhao & Stewart Hodges, 2013. "Parametric modeling of implied smile functions: a generalized SVI model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 53-77, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisa Al`os & Eulalia Nualart & Makar Pravosud, 2023. "On the implied volatility of European and Asian call options under the stochastic volatility Bachelier model," Papers 2308.15341, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.

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