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Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust

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  • David Howden

Abstract

Informational cascades can be used to augment the existing Austrian business cycle theory. As first-order users of knowledge know the direct causes of a price change, they transmit this knowledge to second-order users through the price system. Banks with direct knowledge of the sources of the fresh liquidity during a credit induced boom have knowledge of the boom's artificial and unsustainable nature. Higher-order users lack this direct knowledge, and hence continue investing largely ignorant of underlying developments. When first-order users of knowledge sense the boom has run its course, they exit the market, sending a strong signal to higher-order knowledge users that the boom has ended – a fragile situation built upon an informational cascade begins collapsing. Simultaneously, the boom is characterized by an influx of capital and knowledge into the financial sector owing to increased profits relative to the real economy stemming from Cantillon effects surrounding the credit injection. As knowledge pertaining to real production has also exited, the bust commences with a misallocated productive structure requiring equilibration to become consistent with consumers' wants. Actions which inhibit this knowledge from returning to the productive structure will unnecessarily lengthen the time to recovery.
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  • David Howden, 2010. "Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 165-182, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:23:y:2010:i:2:p:165-182
    DOI: 10.1007/s11138-009-0095-3
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    Cited by:

    1. David Howden & Jason XingBin Li, 2015. "An Austrian Analysis of China's Unsustainable Boom," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 443-452, October.
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    5. Philipp Bagus, 2011. "The Eurosystem: Costs and Tragedies," Chapters, in: David Howden (ed.), Institutions in Crisis, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Philipp Bagus & David Howden, 2012. "Monetary equilibrium and price stickiness: A rejoinder," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 271-277, September.
    7. Bagus, Philipp & Howden, David, 2011. "Unanswered Quibbles with Fractional Reserve Free Banking," MPRA Paper 79594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David Howden, 2014. "Knowledge flows and insider trading," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 45-55, March.
    9. Philipp Bagus & David Howden, 2012. "Still unanswered quibbles with fractional reserve free banking," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 159-171, June.
    10. Bagus, Philipp & Howden, David, 2010. "The Term Structure of Savings, the Yield Curve, and Maturity Mismatching," MPRA Paper 79592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bagus, Philipp & Howden, David, 2013. "Some Ethical Dilemmas with Modern Banking," MPRA Paper 79599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kamaiah Bandi & Rajendra N. Paramanik, 2019. "Dilip M. Nachane: Critique of the new consensus macroeconomics and implications for India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 707-709, September.
    13. Philipp Bagus & David Howden & Amadeus Gabriel, 2014. "Causes and Consequences of Inflation," Post-Print hal-02634016, HAL.
    14. Malte Tobias Kähler, 2011. "From German Rules to European Discretion: Policy’s Slippery Slope," Chapters, in: David Howden (ed.), Institutions in Crisis, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Howden, David, 2013. "The Rise and Fall of the Icelandic Economy," MPRA Paper 79603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lukáš Kovanda, 2014. "Will the Financial Crisis Become a Milestone in the Development of Methodology of Economics? [Stane se finanční krize milníkem v metodologii ekonomie?]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 16-29.
    17. García Iborra, Rafael & Howden, David, 2016. "Uses and Misuses of Arbitrage in Financial Theory, and a Suggested Alternative," MPRA Paper 79802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Joshua R. Hendrickson, 2017. "Interest rates and investment coordination failures," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 493-515, December.
    19. Gabriel A. Giménez-Roche, 2011. "Institutional Illusion and Financial Entrepreneurship in the European Debt Scheme," Chapters, in: David Howden (ed.), Institutions in Crisis, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Randall G. Holcombe, 2017. "Malinvestment," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 153-167, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informational cascades; Overshooting; Business cycle; Inflation; D82; E31; E52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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