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Exchange rate evidence on the effectiveness of United Nations policy

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  • Russell Sobel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of international interventions through their impact on exchange rates. If a specific intervention actually increases (decreases) a country's economic and political stability, then its currency should appreciate (depreciate). Estimates suggest that peacekeeping forces in Lebanon caused long-run appreciations, while economic sanctions imposed upon South Africa only caused temporary depreciations. In both cases, repeated U.N. resolutions condemning or demanding actions, that were not backed by actual interventions, did not cause changes in the exchange rate. The results in this paper are supportive of predictions from the public choice approach applied to international organizations and policies. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Russell Sobel, 1998. "Exchange rate evidence on the effectiveness of United Nations policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:95:y:1998:i:1:p:1-25
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1004971230542
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    1. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September.
    2. Kaemfer, William H & Lowenberg, Anton D, 1988. "The Theory of International Economic Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 786-793, September.
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    6. Kaempfer, William H. & Lehman, James A. & Lowenberg, Anton D., 1987. "Divestment, investment sanctions, and disinvestment: an evaluation of anti-apartheid policy instruments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 457-473, July.
    7. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
    8. William H. Kaempfer & Michael H. Moffett, 1988. "Impact Of Anti‐Apartheid Sanctions On South Africa: Some Trade And Financial Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 6(4), pages 118-129, October.
    9. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    2. Khuram Shafi & Liu Hua & Amna Nazeer & Zahra Idrees, 2015. "Behavior of Exchange Rate Volatility: Once Again in Action," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 270-276, January.
    3. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "World War II as reflected on capital markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 187-191, November.
    4. Singhal, Saurabh & Nilakantan, Rahul, 2016. "The economic effects of a counterinsurgency policy in India: A synthetic control analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    5. repec:wvu:wpaper:09-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 468-496, June.
    7. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9410, CESifo.
    8. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Peter A G van Bergeijk, 2013. "Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(6), pages 721-736, November.
    9. Coyne, Christopher J. & Dempster, Gregory M. & Isaacs, Justin P., 2010. "Asset values and the sustainability of peace prospects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 146-156, May.
    10. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, 1999. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II," CESifo Working Paper Series 221, CESifo.

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