IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v45y1985i2p155-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causality testing of the popularity function: An empirical investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971–1982

Author

Listed:
  • Gebhard Kirchgässner

Abstract

Relying on Allensbach and Infratest data, it is asked if there is a relation between the perception of the general economic situation and the voting intention. Modern time series techniques are employed: Box-Jenkins analysis and Granger causality tests. The test results as well as ex post predictions show that voting intentions are strongly influenced by the perceived economic situation. Thus, the null hypothesis of no relationship between the variables can not only be rejected by using classical econometric methods, as is done in previous studies, but also by employing modern time series procedures. Copyright Martinus Nijhoff Publishers 1985

Suggested Citation

  • Gebhard Kirchgässner, 1985. "Causality testing of the popularity function: An empirical investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971–1982," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 155-173, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:45:y:1985:i:2:p:155-173
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00215062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF00215062
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF00215062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-167, May.
    3. Michael Price, J., 1979. "The characterization of instantaneous causality : A correction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 253-256, June.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    2. René Capitelli, 1985. "Eine empirische Untersuchung über den Zusammenhang von kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen schweizerischen Zinssätzen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(I), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Fantazzini, Dean, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic using Google Trends data: Evidence from 158 countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 33-54.
    4. Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Granger causality stock market networks: Temporal proximity and preferential attachment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 262-276.
    5. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat & Md. Kamruzzaman, 2019. "FINANCE FOR SDGs: Addressing Governance Challenge of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh," CPD Working Paper 125, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    6. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat, 2020. "Fourth Industrial Revolution, Technological Advancement and Youth Employment: A South Asian Perspective," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 21(1), pages 58-75, March.
    7. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, October.
    8. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat, 2022. "The Optimum Level of Income Inequality in South Asia: An Econometric Analysis," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 23(1), pages 7-29, March.
    9. Erdal Atukeren, 2008. "Christmas cards, Easter bunnies, and Granger-causality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 835-844, December.
    10. G. Withers & D. Pitman & B. Whittingham, 1986. "Wage Adjustments and Labour Market Systems: A Cross‐Country Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(4), pages 415-426, December.
    11. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat, 2019. "Governance and Competitiveness: An Econometric Analysis of the Banking Sector of Bangladesh," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-4.
    12. Darrat, Ali F. & Mukherjee, Tarun K., 1995. "Inter-industry differences and the impact of operating and financial leverages on equity risk," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 141-155.
    13. Tai-Liang Chen & Ching-Hsue Cheng & Jing-Wei Liu, 2019. "A Causal Time-Series Model Based on Multilayer Perceptron Regression for Forecasting Taiwan Stock Index," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(06), pages 1967-1987, November.
    14. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 1985. "Die Schweiz im internationalen Zinszusammenhang. Eine zeitreihenanalytische Untersuchung für die Zeit von 1974 bis 1983," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(IV), pages 329-351, December.
    15. Loperfido, Nicola, 2010. "A note on marginal and conditional independence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1695-1699, December.
    16. Buiter, Willem H., 1986. "Granger Causality and Policy Ineffectiveness: A Rejoinder," CEPR Discussion Papers 126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Fali Huang & Myoung-Jae Lee, 2010. "Dynamic treatment effect analysis of TV effects on child cognitive development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 392-419.
    18. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    19. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:45:y:1985:i:2:p:155-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.