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Partisan Differences in Economic Outcomes and Corresponding Voting Behavior: Evidence from the U.S

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  • Sergiy Verstyuk

Abstract

The present empirical work examines the differences in economic outcomes delivered by partisan governments, and the way in which voters take this into account. Autoregressive models of output growth, unemployment and inflation, augmented with political variables; and probit binary choice models of voting decisions, incorporating expectations about inflation and unemployment, are estimated for U.S. post-war data. The analysis confirms that partisan differences in economic outcomes are actually observed in the data. U.S. unemployment rate exhibits a distinct partisan cycle, behavior of output growth and inflation rate partly supports the partisan differences hypothesis. Thus suggesting that each party can be ``instrumental'' in solving particular economic problems. In line with this logic, U.S. voters seem to believe in the asymmetric abilities of parties to fight inflation and unemployment. Most interesting empirical findings include evidence that U.S. citizens tend to vote for the left party (Democrats) when high unemployment is expected, and for the right party (Republicans) when high inflation is expected. This relation is especially robust for Presidential elections. There is also evidence pointing to the presence of electoral inertia and absence of ``midterm'' electoral cycle in the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergiy Verstyuk, 2004. "Partisan Differences in Economic Outcomes and Corresponding Voting Behavior: Evidence from the U.S," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 120(1_2), pages 169-189, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:120:y:2004:i:1_2:p:169-189
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    Cited by:

    1. Mukhopadhyay, Sankar, 2022. "Elections have (health) consequences: Depression, anxiety, and the 2020 presidential election," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    3. Byungjun Yu & Saixing Zeng & Xiaohua Meng & Hanyang Ma & Daxin Sun, 2020. "Does natural environment prefer the right to the left? Governors' partisanship and corporate environmental performance," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 1605-1616, July.
    4. Alexander Maas & Liang Lu, 2021. "Elections have Consequences: Partisan Politics may be Literally Killing Us," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 45-56, January.
    5. Niklas Potrafke, 2017. "Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6444, CESifo.
    6. Dodge Cahan & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "The Democrat-Republican presidential growth gap and the partisan balance of the state governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 577-601, December.
    7. Chang Wen-Chun, 2008. "Toward Independence or Unification?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 124-153, January.

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