Pregnancy and Dropout: Effects of Family, Neighborhood, and High School Characteristics on Girls’ Fertility and Dropout Status

Administrative data from multiple sources are combined to measure pregnancy (excluding those ending in abortion or miscarriage) and high school dropout in a cohort of girls who were 9th graders in the 1994–1995 academic year. Rates of pregnancy (as identified in the data) and dropout are substantially higher among Hispanic high school students than among African-Americans or non-Hispanic whites. Previous studies of teen pregnancy and dropout typically focus on pregnancy rates conditional on dropout status, or dropout rates conditional on fertility. This paper presents estimates of pregnancy and dropout as a joint-dependent variable. Estimates of their joint probability distribution conditional on individual, family, neighborhood, and high school characteristics are reported. The estimates use longitudinal administrative data collected as annual censuses of all public school students in Texas with individual-level ids. Neighborhood characteristics (from the US Census data geographically linked to Texas high schools) have large effects on pregnancy and dropout. Immigrant Hispanic girls’ pregnancy rates are significantly lower than native-born Hispanic girls’ pregnancy rates. Above-normal-age status in the 9th grade is among the strongest predictors of pregnancy and dropout in later years. Ethnic differences in age distributions within grade level appear to explain a large share of ethnic differences in pregnancy and dropout rates.