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A Closer Look at the Second Demographic Transition in the US: Evidence of Bidirectionality from a Cohort Perspective (1982–2006)

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  • Jennifer Kane

Abstract

Second demographic transition (SDT) theory posits that increased individualism and secularization have contributed to low fertility in Europe, but very little work has directly tested the salience of SDT theory to fertility trends in the US. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of women who were followed throughout their reproductive years (National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort, NLSY79), this study examines the role of several key indicators of the SDT (secularization, egalitarianism, religious affiliation, and female participation in the labor market) on fertility behavior over time (1982–2006). Analyses employ Poisson estimation, logistic regression, and cross-lagged structural equation models to observe unidirectional and bidirectional relationships over the reproductive life course. Findings lend support to the relevance of SDT theory in the US but also provide evidence of “American bipolarity” which distinguishes the US from the European case. Furthermore, analyses document the reciprocal nature of these relationships over time which has implications for how we understand these associations at the individual-level. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Jennifer Kane, 2013. "A Closer Look at the Second Demographic Transition in the US: Evidence of Bidirectionality from a Cohort Perspective (1982–2006)," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(1), pages 47-80, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:32:y:2013:i:1:p:47-80
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-012-9257-2
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    2. Sinha, Avik & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sengupta, Tuhin, 2018. "Renewable Energy Policies and Contradictions in Causality: A case of Next 11 Countries," MPRA Paper 87542, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2018.
    3. Dogan Hatun & David F. Warner, 2022. "Disentangling the Roles of Modernization and Secularization on Fertility: The Case of Turkey," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1161-1189, June.

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