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Impersonal Probability as an Ideal Assessment Based on Accessible Evidence: A Viable Construct?

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  • Brown, Rex V

Abstract

When risk analysts and others refer to the "true" probability of an event, it is not easy to give it a meaning which is sound and useful as a communication device for regulatory, research planning, and related purposes. An interpretation is herein offered which, unlike Bayesian probability, is impersonal and does not depend on a particular assessor; unlike Carnap's "logical" probability, it does not depend on information actually to hand. It is a generalization of frequency and propensity interpretations of impersonal probability applicable to unique events: an ideal assessment based on currently accessible (not in general "perfect") evidence. The argument is illustrated from decision-aiding experience which motivated the enquiry. Copyright 1993 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, Rex V, 1993. "Impersonal Probability as an Ideal Assessment Based on Accessible Evidence: A Viable Construct?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 215-235, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:7:y:1993:i:2:p:215-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Rex V. Brown, 2009. "Working with Policy Makers on Their Choices: A Decision Analyst Reminisces," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 14-24, March.
    2. Rex V. Brown, 2006. "Making decision research useful - not just rewarding," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 162-173, November.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:162-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rex V. Brown, 2005. "Logic and Motivation in Risk Research: A Nuclear Waste Test Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 125-140, February.
    5. Rex Brown, 2004. "Naming Concepts Worth Naming," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 86-88, June.
    6. Rex V. Brown, 2012. "Decision theory as an aid to private choice," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(2), pages 207-223, March.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:2:p:207-223 is not listed on IDEAS

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