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Ambiguity, Probability, Preference, and Decision Analysis

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  • Winkler, Robert L

Abstract

The possible influence of ambiguity on decisions about probabilities has received considerable attention, with most modeling efforts focusing on the probabilities. In this article, it is argued that effects of ambiguity on decision making often operate via the decision maker's preferences rather than probabilities. Therefore, a natural way to model ambiguity is in terms of preferences, via the consequence space and utilities. Some difficulties in developing ambiguity-related models to encompass the full range of realistic decision-making problems and in implementing such models are discussed briefly. Finally, the question of whether ambiguity should matter prescriptively is addressed. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Winkler, Robert L, 1991. "Ambiguity, Probability, Preference, and Decision Analysis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 285-297, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:4:y:1991:i:3:p:285-97
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Aurelien Baillon & Laetitia Placido & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 695-723, April.
    2. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul & Schaffner, Markus & Torgler, Benno, 2018. "Expectation formation in an evolving game of uncertainty: New experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 379-405.
    3. Junyi Chai & Zhiquan Weng & Wenbin Liu, 2021. "Behavioral Decision Making in Normative and Descriptive Views: A Critical Review of Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Paul K. J. Han & William M. P. Klein & Thomas C. Lehman & Holly Massett & Simon C. Lee & Andrew N. Freedman, 2009. "Laypersons' Responses to the Communication of Uncertainty Regarding Cancer Risk Estimates," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(3), pages 391-403, May.
    5. Langewisch, Andrew & Choobineh, Fred, 1996. "Stochastic dominance tests for ranking alternatives under ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 139-154, November.
    6. Hagen Lindstädt, 2004. "Entscheidungskalküle jenseits des subjektiven Erwartungsnutzens," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 495-519, September.

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