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Measuring Intergenerational Time Preference: Are Future Lives Valued Less?

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  • Frederick, Shane

Abstract

Prior research has estimated intergenerational time preferences by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical life saving programs. From such choices, researchers have concluded that the public heavily discounts the lives of people in future generations. However, using a multiversion survey involving 401 respondents, I show that imputed intergenerational time preferences can be dramatically affected by the specific question that is asked. Different elicitation procedures can yield widely varying results by evoking or suppressing various relevant considerations (such as uncertainty). Many formats revealed no preference for current generations over future generations. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Frederick, Shane, 2003. "Measuring Intergenerational Time Preference: Are Future Lives Valued Less?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 39-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:26:y:2003:i:1:p:39-53
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    1. Courard-Hauri, David & Klimas, Christie A. & Parrish, Conor, 2020. "An analysis of the long-term social discount rate and the valuation of large environmental losses using non-monetary tradeoffs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:236-249 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Arthur E. Attema & Han Bleichrodt & Olivier L’Haridon & Patrick Peretti-Watel & Valérie Seror, 2018. "Discounting health and money: New evidence using a more robust method," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 117-140, April.
    4. Spackman, Michael, 2021. "Social discounting and the cost of public funding in practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111490, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Frederick, Shane, 2006. "Valuing future life and future lives: A framework for understanding discounting," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 667-680, October.
    6. Nesje, Frikk, 2020. "Cross-dynastic Intergenerational Altruism," Working Papers 0678, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. W. Kip Viscusi & Joel Huber, 2006. "Hyperbolic Discounting of Public Goods," NBER Working Papers 11935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jeffery L. Guyse & L. Robin Keller & Candice H. Huynh, 2020. "Valuing Sequences of Lives Lost or Saved Over Time: Preference for Uniform Sequences," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 24-38, March.
    9. van der Pol, Marjon & Cairns, John, 2008. "Comparison of two methods of eliciting time preference for future health states," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 883-889, September.
    10. Michael Spackman, 2011. "Government discounting controversies: the valuation of social time preference," GRI Working Papers 68, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Jeffery L. Guyse & Jay Simon, 2011. "Consistency Among Elicitation Techniques for Intertemporal Choice: A Within-Subjects Investigation of the Anomalies," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 233-246, September.
    12. C. Giannetti, 2014. "Time Preference Instability, Financial and Working Status," Working Papers wp924, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, 2021. "Future-Generation Perception: Equal or Not Equal? Long-Term Individual Discount Rates for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Ana Rita Farias & Seray Coruk & Cláudia Simão, 2021. "The Effects of Temporal Discounting on Perceived Seriousness of Environmental Behavior: Exploring the Moderator Role of Consumer Attitudes Regarding Green Purchasing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-8, June.
    15. Alan Guoming Huang & Eric Hughson & J. Chris Leach, 2016. "Generational Asset Pricing, Equity Puzzles, and Cyclicality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 52-71, October.
    16. David J. Hardisty & Katherine F. Thompson & David H. Krantz & Elke U. Weber, 2013. "How to measure time preferences: An experimental comparison of three methods," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 236-249, May.
    17. Alexander Adamou & Yonatan Berman & Diomides Mavroyiannis & Ole Peters, 2021. "Microfoundations of Discounting," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 257-272, December.
    18. Wolfgang Breuer & Bushra Ghufran & Astrid Juliane Salzmann, 2020. "Investors' time preferences and takeover performance," Post-Print hal-02508909, HAL.
    19. Robberstad, Bjarne, 2005. "Estimation of private and social time preferences for health in northern Tanzania," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 61(7), pages 1597-1607, October.
    20. Cairns, John, 2006. "Developments in discounting: With special reference to future health events," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 282-297, August.
    21. Breuer, Wolfgang & Ghufran, Bushra & Salzmann, Astrid Juliane, 2020. "Investors' time preferences and takeover performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    22. Daniel Johnson & Judith Exl & Sylvie Geisendorf, 2021. "The Potential of Stormwater Management in Addressing the Urban Heat Island Effect: An Economic Valuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    23. Benhabib, Jess & Bisin, Alberto & Schotter, Andrew, 2010. "Present-bias, quasi-hyperbolic discounting, and fixed costs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 205-223, July.

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