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Examining Predictive Accuracy Among Discounting Models

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  • Keller, L Robin
  • Strazzera, Elisabetta

Abstract

Both descriptive and normative arguments claim that the discount rate to be applied to public projects should be elicited from individual intertemporal preferences. We present a methodology to analyze data from experimental surveys on intertemporal preferences. Focusing on the exponential and the hyperbolic discounting models, we model the experimental data published by Thaler (1981) by means of different specifications. Standard measures of goodness of prediction are then applied to fitted data to select among alternative specifications. We first present our approach by applying it to simulated data. We then present a procedure for statistical estimation of the sample discount rate, testing four specifications. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Keller, L Robin & Strazzera, Elisabetta, 2002. "Examining Predictive Accuracy Among Discounting Models," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 143-160, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:24:y:2002:i:2:p:143-60
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabetta Strazzera & Elisabetta Cherchi & Silvia Ferrini, 2008. "A Choice Modelling Approach for Assessment of Use and Quasi-Option Values in Urban Planning for Areas of Environmental Interest," Working Papers 2008.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. M. Musumeci, 2000. "Innovazione tecnologica e beni culturali. Uno studio sulla situazione della Sicilia," Working Paper CRENoS 200008, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    3. Arthur E. Attema & Han Bleichrodt & Kirsten I. M. Rohde & Peter P. Wakker, 2010. "Time-Tradeoff Sequences for Analyzing Discounting and Time Inconsistency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2015-2030, November.
    4. Lu, Yang & Wu, Dongmei & Zhuang, Xintian, 2016. "Part-whole bias in intertemporal choice: An empirical study of additive assumption," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 231-235.
    5. Meyer, Andrew G., 2015. "The impacts of elicitation mechanism and reward size on estimated rates of time preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 132-148.
    6. Jeffery L. Guyse & Jay Simon, 2011. "Consistency Among Elicitation Techniques for Intertemporal Choice: A Within-Subjects Investigation of the Anomalies," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 233-246, September.
    7. R. Naylor, 2001. "Firm profits and the number of firms under unionised oligopoly," Working Paper CRENoS 200109, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Elisabetta Strazzera & Elisabetta Cherchi & Silvia Ferrini, 2010. "Assessment of Regeneration Projects in Urban Areas of Environmental Interest: A Stated Choice Approach to Estimate Use and Quasi-Option Values," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 42(2), pages 452-468, February.
    9. Andrew Meyer, 2013. "Estimating discount factors for public and private goods and testing competing discounting hypotheses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 133-173, April.
    10. Breitmoser, Yves, 2016. "Stochastic choice, systematic mistakes and preference estimation," MPRA Paper 72779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. C. Antonelli & R. Marchionatti & S. Usai, 2000. "Productivity and External Knowledge: The Italian Case," Working Paper CRENoS 200009, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. C. Robert Kenley & Donald C. Armstead, 2004. "Discounting models for long‐term decision making," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 13-24.
    13. Geraats, P.M., 2005. "Intertemporal Substitution and Hyperbolic Discounting," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0515, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Susan Laury & Melayne McInnes & J. Todd Swarthout, 2012. "Avoiding the curves: Direct elicitation of time preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 181-217, June.
    15. Arthur E. Attema & Han Bleichrodt & Olivier L’Haridon & Patrick Peretti-Watel & Valérie Seror, 2018. "Discounting health and money: New evidence using a more robust method," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 117-140, April.
    16. Lu, Yang & Zhuang, Xintian, 2014. "The impact of gender and working experience on intertemporal choices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 409(C), pages 146-153.
    17. Andersen, Steffen & Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Rutström, E. Elisabet, 2014. "Discounting behavior: A reconsideration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-33.
    18. R. Naylor, 2001. "Industry profits and market size under bilateral oligopoly," Working Paper CRENoS 200108, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    19. Scholten, Marc & Read, Daniel, 2006. "Beyond discounting: the tradeoff model of intertemporal choice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 22710, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Philip A. Horvath & Amit K. Sinha, 2017. "Asymmetric reaction is rational behavior," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 160-179, January.
    21. Andrew Meyer, 2013. "Intertemporal Valuation of River Restoration," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 41-61, January.
    22. Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2006. "A note on the relevance of the q-exponential function in the context of intertemporal choices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 385-388.

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