IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v69y2024i2d10.1007_s11146-022-09920-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spread Too Thin: REIT Asset Dispersion and Divergence of Opinion

Author

Listed:
  • Mariya Letdin

    (Florida State University)

  • C. Stace Sirmans

    (Auburn University)

  • G. Stacy Sirmans

    (Florida State University)

Abstract

In this paper we explore the drivers and implications of divergence in investor opinion of firm value. We use dispersion in analyst estimates of Net Asset Value in REITs as a measure of divergence. We find that divergence in opinion of value is positively associated with portfolio geographic diversity, the presence of international buildings, and firm leverage. Portfolio concentration in tertiary versus gateway markets has no effect on dispersion of value estimates. We find that greater divergence in analyst opinion of value predicts lower stock returns and higher return volatility. Consistent with theoretical predictions from Miller (1977), we find that firms for which investors have the highest disagreement on valuation, pessimistic views of investors are not fully incorporated into prices, resulting in lower future returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariya Letdin & C. Stace Sirmans & G. Stacy Sirmans, 2024. "Spread Too Thin: REIT Asset Dispersion and Divergence of Opinion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 201-227, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:69:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-022-09920-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-022-09920-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-022-09920-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-022-09920-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael S. Young, 2000. "REIT Property-Type Sector Integration," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 3-21.
    2. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    3. Adem Atmaz & Suleyman Basak, 2018. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1225-1279, June.
    4. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Yang Ni & Jeffrey Pittman & Samir Saadi, 2013. "Does Information Asymmetry Matter to Equity Pricing? Evidence from Firms’ Geographic Location," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 140-181, March.
    5. Zhilan Feng & Maneechit Pattanapanchai & S. McKay Price & C. F. Sirmans, 2021. "Geographic diversification in real estate investment trusts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 267-286, March.
    6. John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel & Richard Roll, 2015. "Can Housing Risk Be Diversified? A Cautionary Tale from the Housing Boom and Bust," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 913-936.
    7. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    8. Hochberg, Yael V. & Mühlhofer, Tobias, 2017. "Market Timing and Investment Selection: Evidence from Real Estate Investors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2643-2675, December.
    9. Bae, Kee-Hong & Stulz, René M. & Tan, Hongping, 2008. "Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 581-606, June.
    10. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2018. "Geographic Portfolio Allocations, Property Selection and Performance Attribution in Public and Private Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 404-448, June.
    11. Shan Min Charmaine Cheok & Tien Foo Sing & I-Chun Tsai, 2011. "Diversification as a Value-Adding Strategy for Asian REITs: A Myth or Reality?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 14(2), pages 184-207.
    12. Alexander David, 2008. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation, and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 41-83, February.
    13. George D. Cashman & David M. Harrison & Michael J. Seiler & Hainan Sheng, 2019. "The Impact of Geographic and Cultural Dispersion on Information Opacity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 166-208, August.
    14. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    15. Berry, Thomas & Gamble, Keith Jacks, 2013. "Informed local trading prior to earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 505-525.
    16. Sumit Agarwal, 2010. "Distance and Private Information in Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2757-2788, July.
    17. Randy Anderson & Justin Benefield & Matthew Hurst, 2015. "Property-type diversification and REIT performance: an analysis of operating performance and abnormal returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 48-74, January.
    18. Dennis R. Capozza & Sohan Lee, 1995. "Property Type, Size, and REIT Value," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 363-380.
    19. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    20. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
    21. Joseph Gyourko & Edward Nelling, 1996. "Systematic Risk and Diversification in the Equity REIT Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 493-515, December.
    22. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2019. "Asset Location, Timing Ability and the Cross‐Section of Commercial Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 263-313, March.
    23. Xing Huang, 2015. "Thinking Outside the Borders: Investors' Underreaction to Foreign Operations Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3109-3152.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:1957-1978 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Hartzell, Jay C. & Sun, Libo & Titman, Sheridan, 2014. "Institutional investors as monitors of corporate diversification decisions: Evidence from real estate investment trusts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 61-72.
    26. Ronnie Sadka & Anna Scherbina, 2007. "Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2367-2403, October.
    27. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    28. Glenn R. Mueller & Barry A. Ziering, 1992. "Real Estate Portfolio Diversification Using Economic Diversification," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 7(4), pages 375-386.
    29. Johnson, Timothy C. & Lee, Jaehoon, 2014. "On the systematic volatility of unpriced earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 84-104.
    30. David C. Ling & Chongyu Wang & Tingyu Zhou, 2021. "The Geography of Real Property Information and Investment: Firm Location, Asset Location and Institutional Ownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 287-331, March.
    31. Carlin, Bruce I. & Longstaff, Francis A. & Matoba, Kyle, 2014. "Disagreement and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 226-238.
    32. Timothy J. Riddiough & Mark Moriarty & P.J. Yeatman, 2005. "Privately Versus Publicly Held Asset Investment Performance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 121-146, March.
    33. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    34. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 1999. "Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2045-2073, December.
    35. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2001. "The Geography of Investment: Informed Trading and Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 811-841, August.
    36. Robert D. Campbell & Milena Petrova & C. F. Sirmans, 2003. "Wealth Effects of Diversification and Financial Deal Structuring: Evidence from REIT Property Portfolio Acquisitions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 347-366, September.
    37. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    38. Bartley Danielsen & David Harrison, 2007. "The Impact of Property Type Diversification on REIT Liquidity," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-344, January.
    39. Mike Miles & Tom Mc Cue, 1982. "Historic Returns and Institutional Real Estate Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 184-199, June.
    40. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss & Felix Schindler, 2015. "The Sources of Risk Spillovers among U.S. REITs: Financial Characteristics and Regional Proximity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 67-100, March.
    41. Snehal Banerjee, 2011. "Learning from Prices and the Dispersion in Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3025-3068.
    42. John B. Corgel, 1997. "Property-by-Property Valuation of Publicly Traded Real Estate Firms," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 77-90.
    43. Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, April.
    44. Honghui Chen & David H. Downs & Gary A. Patterson, 2012. "The Information Content of REIT Short Interest: Investment Focus and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 249-283, June.
    45. David J. Hartzell & David G. Shulma & Vice President, 1987. "Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 85-95.
    46. Justin D. Benefield & Randy I. Anderson & Leonard V. Zumpano, 2009. "Performance differences in property‐type diversified versus specialized real estate investment trusts (REITs)," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 70-79, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2021. "There is no place like home: Information asymmetries, local asset concentration, and portfolio returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 36-74, March.
    2. Zhilan Feng & Maneechit Pattanapanchai & S. McKay Price & C. F. Sirmans, 2021. "Geographic diversification in real estate investment trusts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 267-286, March.
    3. George D. Cashman & David M. Harrison & Michael J. Seiler & Hainan Sheng, 2019. "The Impact of Geographic and Cultural Dispersion on Information Opacity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 166-208, August.
    4. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    5. Chongyu Wang & Tingyu Zhou, 2021. "Trade-offs between Asset Location and Proximity to Home: Evidence from REIT Property Sell-offs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 82-121, July.
    6. Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer, Ekkehart & Jiang, Chao & Koch, Paul D., 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 850-875.
    7. Ling Cen & K. C. John Wei & Liyan Yang, 2017. "Disagreement, Underreaction, and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1214-1231, April.
    8. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.
    9. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek, 2018. "What does investors' online divergence of opinion tell us about stock returns and trading volume?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 166-178.
    10. D. Schneller & S. Heiden & M. Heiden & A. Hamid, 2018. "Home is Where You Know Your Volatility – Local Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Volatility," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(2), pages 209-236, May.
    11. Nezafat, Mahdi & Shen, Tao & Wang, Qinghai & Wu, Julie, 2022. "Longs, shorts, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Bing Zhu & Stanimira Milcheva, 2020. "The Pricing of Spatial Linkages in Companies’ Underlying Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 443-475, October.
    13. Han, Yufeng & Huang, Dashan & Huang, Dayong & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Expected return, volume, and mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1295-1315.
    14. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2022. "Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Peter Cziraki & Jordi Mondria & Thomas Wu, 2021. "Asymmetric Attention and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 48-71, January.
    16. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    17. David C. Ling & Chongyu Wang & Tingyu Zhou, 2022. "Asset productivity, local information diffusion, and commercial real estate returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 89-121, March.
    18. Junjun Ma & Xindan Li & Lei Lu & Weixing Wu & Xiong Xiong, 2022. "Individual investors' dispersion in beliefs and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 929-953, September.
    19. Jorida Papakroni, 2018. "The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 861-896, April.
    20. Hibbert, Ann Marie & Kang, Qiang & Kumar, Alok & Mishra, Suchi, 2020. "Heterogeneous beliefs and return volatility around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 571-589.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:69:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-022-09920-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.