IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v63y2021i1d10.1007_s11146-020-09763-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did Real Estate Professionals Anticipate the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis? Evidence from Insider Trading in the REITs

Author

Listed:
  • Jianfu Shen

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

  • Eddie C.M. Hui

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

  • Kwokyuen Fan

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

Abstract

This research examines whether real estate professionals detected the property bubble and foresaw the consequent financial crisis of 2007-2008. By analysing the insider trading activities within REITs from 1996 to 2010, we find that REIT insiders reduced their holdings significantly during the real estate boom period as early as 2004, before the financial crisis. Difference-in-difference analysis reveals that REIT insiders cashed out their positions more aggressively than insiders in real estate and construction firms. The findings support the informed trader hypothesis that managers and employees in REITs anticipated the burst of the real estate bubble and the imminent financial crisis, and shifted their wealth away from the real estate market to avoid potential losses. We find no evidence to support the biased belief hypothesis (Cheng et al., 2014) that REIT insiders were over-optimistic during the real estate boom period or that their inside trading behaviour was affected by local market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfu Shen & Eddie C.M. Hui & Kwokyuen Fan, 2021. "Did Real Estate Professionals Anticipate the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis? Evidence from Insider Trading in the REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 122-142, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:63:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-020-09763-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-020-09763-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-020-09763-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-020-09763-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Bhagat, Sanjai & Bolton, Brian, 2014. "Financial crisis and bank executive incentive compensation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 313-341.
    3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    4. Roland Bénabou, 2013. "Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 429-462.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    6. Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger & Stulz, René M., 2011. "Bank CEO incentives and the credit crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 11-26, January.
    7. Seyhun, H. Nejat, 1986. "Insiders' profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.
    8. Adebambo, Biljana & Brockman, Paul & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2015. "Anticipating the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis: Who Knew What and When Did They Know It?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 647-669, August.
    9. Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1974. "Special Information and Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 410-428, July.
    10. Enrichetta Ravina & Paola Sapienza, 2010. "What Do Independent Directors Know? Evidence from Their Trading," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Governance, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
    12. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. "An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-1699, December.
    13. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    14. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Superstar Cities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 167-199, November.
    15. Damodaran, Aswath & Liu, Crocker H, 1993. "Insider Trading as a Signal of Private Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 79-119.
    16. Rozeff, Michael S & Zaman, Mir A, 1988. "Market Efficiency and Insider Trading: New Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 25-44, January.
    17. Brent W. Ambrose & Peter Linneman, 2001. "Reit Organizational Structure and Operating Characteristics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(3), pages 141-162.
    18. Ali, Usman & Hirshleifer, David, 2017. "Opportunism as a firm and managerial trait: Predicting insider trading profits and misconduct," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 490-515.
    19. Finnerty, Joseph E, 1976. "Insiders and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1141-1148, September.
    20. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
    21. Lauren Cohen & Christopher Malloy & Lukasz Pomorski, 2012. "Decoding Inside Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1009-1043, June.
    22. Ing-Haw Cheng & Sahil Raina & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Wall Street and the Housing Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2797-2829, September.
    23. Dirk Jenter, 2005. "Market Timing and Managerial Portfolio Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1903-1949, August.
    24. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-194, March.
    25. Brandon Cline & Xudong Fu & Thomas M. Springer & Tian Tang, 2014. "Insider Trading in REITs: Evidence from Informed Stock Option Exercise Around Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 36(4), pages 511-540.
    26. Gao, Feng & Lisic, Ling Lei & Zhang, Ivy Xiying, 2014. "Commitment to social good and insider trading," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 149-175.
    27. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    28. Haliassos, Michael (ed.), 2013. "Financial Innovation: Too Much or Too Little?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018296, April.
    29. Cziraki, Peter, 2018. "Trading by bank insiders before and during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 58-82.
    30. Finnerty, Joseph E., 1976. "Insiders' Activity and Inside Information: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 205-215, June.
    31. Partha Gangopadhyay & Ken C. Yook & Joseph D. Haley, 2019. "Bank bailouts and corporate insider trading during the financial crisis of 2007–2009," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 35-83, January.
    32. Philippas, Nikolaos & Economou, Fotini & Babalos, Vassilios & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Herding behavior in REITs: Novel tests and the role of financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jianfu Shen & Kwong Wing Chau, 2022. "The Effect of Access to the Public Debt Market on Corporate Financing Decisions: The Case of REITs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Daoju Peng & Jianfu Shen & Simon Yu Kit Fung & Eddie C. M. Hui & Kwokyuen Fan, 2024. "The Valuation Effect and Consequences of Clawback Adoption in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 274-317, February.
    3. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2022. "How does Covid-19 affect global equity markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cziraki, Peter, 2018. "Trading by bank insiders before and during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 58-82.
    2. Partha Gangopadhyay & Ken C. Yook & Joseph D. Haley, 2019. "Bank bailouts and corporate insider trading during the financial crisis of 2007–2009," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 35-83, January.
    3. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Robert Nash & He (Helen) Wang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and insider trading," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 817-854, December.
    4. Ozlem Akin & José M Marín & José-Luis Peydró, 2020. "Anticipating the financial crisis: evidence from insider trading in banks," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(102), pages 213-267.
    5. Aziz Simsir, Serif & Simsek, Koray D., 2022. "The market impact of private information before corporate Announcements: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Tirapat, Sunti & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "Opportunistic insider trading," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1046-1061.
    7. Ormazabal, Gaizka & Jagolinzer, Alan D. & Larcker, David F. & Taylor, Daniel, 2017. "Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades," CEPR Discussion Papers 12153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Contreras, Harold & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2023. "Religion and insider trading profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Semih Tartaroglu & Michael Imhof, 2017. "Insider trading and response to earnings announcements: the impact of accelerated disclosure requirements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 315-336, August.
    10. Rahman, Dewan & Malik, Ihtisham & Ali, Searat & Iqbal, Jamshed, 2021. "Do co-opted boards increase insider profitability?," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3).
    11. Agrawal, Anup & Nasser, Tareque, 2012. "Insider trading in takeover targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 598-625.
    12. Ke, Bin & Huddart, Steven & Petroni, Kathy, 2003. "What insiders know about future earnings and how they use it: Evidence from insider trades," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 315-346, August.
    13. Luke M. Bennett & Wei Hu, 2023. "Filtration enlargement‐based time series forecast in view of insider trading," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 112-140, February.
    14. Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc & Zhao, Yang, 2019. "Insider trading and networked directors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-175.
    15. Pham, Mia Hang, 2020. "In law we trust: Lawyer CEOs and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Jonathan A. Milian, 2016. "Insider sales based on short-term earnings information," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 109-128, July.
    17. Aktas, Nihat & de Bodt, Eric & Van Oppens, Hervé, 2008. "Legal insider trading and market efficiency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1379-1392, July.
    18. Foley, Sean & Kwan, Amy & McInish, Thomas H. & Philip, Richard, 2016. "Director discretion and insider trading profitability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-43.
    19. Foley, Sean & Kwan, Amy & McInish, Thomas H. & Philip, Richard, 2017. "Reprint of Director discretion and insider trading profitability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-67.
    20. Kolasinski, Adam C. & Yang, Nan, 2018. "Managerial myopia and the mortgage meltdown," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 466-485.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:63:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-020-09763-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.