IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jculte/v37y2013i2p271-307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The pricing of soft and hard information: economic lessons from screenplay sales

Author

Listed:
  • William Goetzmann
  • S. Ravid
  • Ronald Sverdlove

Abstract

This paper uses a unique data set on screenplay sales to learn how the information content of a sales pitch affects sale prices. This is one of the few studies that analyze “soft information” outside the banking industry. We find that “soft information” proxies, such as the descriptive complexity of a pitch, depress prices, in particular for less experienced writers, supporting the common industry view that high concept (short and simple) screenplays sell better. “Hard information” (measurable experience) variables are priced as well. We also find that large studios shun “soft information”, whereas small companies handle it better, as predicted by most theories. In the last part of the paper, we find that, surprisingly, buyers seem to be able to forecast the eventual success of a project based upon the purchased script, paying more for screenplays which will eventually culminate in more successful movies. In other words, perhaps “somebody knows something”. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • William Goetzmann & S. Ravid & Ronald Sverdlove, 2013. "The pricing of soft and hard information: economic lessons from screenplay sales," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(2), pages 271-307, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:37:y:2013:i:2:p:271-307
    DOI: 10.1007/s10824-012-9183-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10824-012-9183-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10824-012-9183-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
    2. Gill, David & Sgroi, Daniel, 2012. "The optimal choice of pre-launch reviewer," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 1247-1260.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Formal and Real Authority in Organizations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-29, February.
    4. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2000. "Reputation Effects and the Limits of Contracting: A Study of the Indian Software Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 989-1017.
    5. Jose M. Liberti & Atif R. Mian, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of Hierarchies on Information Use," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4057-4090, October.
    6. repec:bla:jindec:v:46:y:1998:i:2:p:125-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hamlen, William A, Jr, 1991. "Superstardom in Popular Music: Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 729-733, November.
    8. Chisholm, Darlene C, 1997. "Profit-Sharing versus Fixed-Payment Contracts: Evidence from the Motion Pictures Industry," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 169-201, April.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Miller, Nathan H. & Petersen, Mitchell A. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2005. "Does function follow organizational form? Evidence from the lending practices of large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-269, May.
    10. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 1996. "The Use of Covenants: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Partnership Agreements," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 463-498, October.
    11. Darius Palia & S. Abraham Ravid & Natalia Reisel, 2008. "Choosing to Cofinance: Analysis of Project-Specific Alliances in the Movie Industry," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 483-511, April.
    12. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    13. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Strömberg, 2003. "Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 281-315.
    14. David Godes & Dina Mayzlin, 2004. "Using Online Conversations to Study Word-of-Mouth Communication," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 545-560, June.
    15. Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Information Production and Capital Allocation: Decentralized versus Hierarchical Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1891-1921, October.
    16. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
    17. Josh Lerner & Robert P. Merges, 1998. "The Control of Technology Alliances: An Empirical Analysis of the Biotechnology Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 125-156, June.
    18. De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 1999. ""Uncertainty in the Movies: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?"," Papers 98-99-10, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    19. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Sam K. Hui & Z. John Zhang, 2007. "From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 881-893, June.
    20. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Does Distance Still Matter? The Information Revolution in Small Business Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2533-2570, December.
    21. Chung, Kee H & Cox, Raymond A K, 1994. "A Stochastic Model of Superstardom: An Application of the Yule Distribution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 771-775, November.
    22. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-858, December.
    23. Liran Einav, 2007. "Seasonality in the U.S. motion picture industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 127-145, March.
    24. C. Edward Fee, 2002. "The Costs of Outside Equity Control: Evidence from Motion Picture Financing Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 681-712, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jordi McKenzie, 2023. "The economics of movies (revisited): A survey of recent literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 480-525, April.
    2. Pamela Adams & Roberto Fontana & Astrid Marinoni, 2018. "More “team” than “fame”: spin-off success in the US television sitcom industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 957-974.
    3. Mun, Mak Kit & Chong, Choo Wei, 2018. "Forecasting Movie Demand Using Total and Split Exponential Smoothing," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(2), pages 81-94.
    4. Darlene Chisholm & Víctor Fernández-Blanco & S. Abraham Ravid & W. David Walls, 2015. "Economics of motion pictures: the state of the art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 39(1), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Hong Luo & Jeffrey Macher & Michael Wahlen, 2021. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6358-6377, October.
    6. John, Kose & Ravid, S. Abraham & Sunder, Jayanthi, 2017. "Managerial ability and success: Evidence from the career paths of film directors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 425-439.
    7. José María Liberti & Mitchell A Petersen, 2019. "Information: Hard and Soft," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41.
    8. Lily Shen & Stephen L. Ross, 2019. "Information Value of Property Description: A Machine Learning Approach," Working papers 2019-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2020.
    9. Lee Yoong Hon & Ruth Lim Sheau Yen, 2018. "At the Movies: Some Stylized Facts on Investment Returns and Consumption Patterns," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 17(2), pages 123-142, September.
    10. José María Liberti & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2018. "Information: Hard and Soft," NBER Working Papers 25075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaenssle Sophia & Budzinski Oliver & Astakhova Daria, 2018. "Conquering the Box Office: Factors Influencing Success of International Movies in Russia," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 245-266, December.
    2. José María Liberti & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2018. "Information: Hard and Soft," NBER Working Papers 25075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Darlene Chisholm & Víctor Fernández-Blanco & S. Abraham Ravid & W. David Walls, 2015. "Economics of motion pictures: the state of the art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 39(1), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Shu Han & S. Abraham Ravid, 2020. "Star Turnover and the Value of Human Capital—Evidence from Broadway Shows," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 958-978, February.
    5. Christian Opitz & Kay H. Hofmann, 2014. "Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in Equity Partnerships: Evidence from Hollywood's Slate Financing Agreements," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 811-838, December.
    6. Jordi McKenzie, 2023. "The economics of movies (revisited): A survey of recent literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 480-525, April.
    7. Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2012. "Loan officers and relationship lending to SMEs," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 97-122.
    8. Bottazzi, Laura & Da Rin, Marco & Hellmann, Thomas, 2008. "Who are the active investors?: Evidence from venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 488-512, September.
    9. José María Liberti, 2018. "Initiative, Incentives, and Soft Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3714-3734, August.
    10. Stefano Filomeni & Gregory F. Udell & Alberto Zazzaro, 2016. "Hardening Soft Information: How Far Has Technology Taken Us?," CSEF Working Papers 455, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    11. Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2022. "Branch network structure, authority and lending behaviour," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    12. Wen-jhan Jane & Wei-peng Chen & Yuan-lin Hsu, 2015. "The impact of deregulation on the movie box office after Taiwan’s entry into the WTO: the difference-in-differences estimation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 289-308, December.
    13. W. Walls, 2010. "Superstars and heavy tails in recorded entertainment: empirical analysis of the market for DVDs," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(4), pages 261-279, November.
    14. Robert Bird & John Knopf, 2015. "The Impact of Local Knowledge on Banking," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 1-20, August.
    15. Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Banks, Distances and Firms' Financing Constraints," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 261-307.
    16. Janis Skrastins & Vikrant Vig, 2019. "How Organizational Hierarchy Affects Information Production," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 564-604.
    17. John, Kose & Ravid, S. Abraham & Sunder, Jayanthi, 2017. "Managerial ability and success: Evidence from the career paths of film directors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 425-439.
    18. José María Liberti & Mitchell A Petersen, 2019. "Information: Hard and Soft," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41.
    19. Jennie Bai & Massimo Massa, 2021. "Is Human-Interaction-based Information Substitutable? Evidence from Lockdown," NBER Working Papers 29513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sauro Mocetti & Marcello Pagnini & Enrico Sette, 2017. "Information Technology and Banking Organization," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 313-338, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:37:y:2013:i:2:p:271-307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.