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Taxation and House-Price Uncertainty: Some Empirical Estimates

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  • Steven Sheffrin
  • Tracy Turner

Abstract

Purchasing a home involves a large and localized investment that leaves many families exposed to volatile house prices and at risk of losing their home equity. Price movements are typically not synchronized across cities, suggesting the potential for efficiency gains through risk sharing across households. In this paper, we consider the possibility of risk sharing through capital gains taxation. When full loss offset is permitted, potential gains and losses are reduced at the household level by taxation and distributed nationally, thereby allowing the tax authority to diversify away the local risks associated with owner-occupied housing. We simulate the effect of a capital gains tax with full loss offset on tenure choice and housing demand using micro-level data from the American Housing Survey, spanning ten years, from 1985 to 1995, and measures of time varying risk and return. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

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  • Steven Sheffrin & Tracy Turner, 2001. "Taxation and House-Price Uncertainty: Some Empirical Estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 621-636, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:8:y:2001:i:4:p:621-636
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011236922767
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    1. Deng, Yongheng & Liu, Xin & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "One fundamental and two taxes: When does a Tobin tax reduce financial price volatility?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 663-692.
    2. Nicole Aregger & Martin Brown & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2013. "Transaction Taxes, Capital Gains Taxes and House Prices," Working Papers 2013-02, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Tracy M. Turner & Marc T. Smith, 2009. "Exits From Homeownership: The Effects Of Race, Ethnicity, And Income," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 1-32, February.
    4. David S. Bullock & Philip Garcia & Kie‐Yup Shin, 2005. "Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non‐neutrality," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Are government interventions effective in regulating China fs house prices?," Discussion Papers 1427, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Turner, Tracy M. & Luea, Heather, 2009. "Homeownership, wealth accumulation and income status," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 104-114, June.

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