IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v22y2025i1d10.1007_s10368-024-00640-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economic rise of China – an analysis of China’s growth drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Volker Brühl

    (Goethe University)

Abstract

The economic rise of China has changed the global economy. The authors explore China’s transformation from a low-cost manufacturing hub to an increasingly innovation- and service driven economy. Major growth drivers for the period 2010–2025 are analysed, including the paradigms of “Made in China” and the “Dual Circulation Strategy”. The export intensity of China’s economy is declining overall, with a tendency towards greater regional diversification and a gradual decoupling from North America and the European Union. At the same time, trade and investment activities are increasingly geared to the Belt and Road Initiative. Furthermore, labour and energy cost advantages for manufacturing operations in China are likely to diminish in the coming years, calling into question China’s attractiveness as a global manufacturing hub. In this regard, the further development of regional and industrial clusters is pivotal for China to enhance its global competitiveness and remain an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the medium term. On the other hand, high productivity in science and technology and rich deposits of critical minerals put China in a favourable position in advanced industries. Important challenges include the still wide development gap between rural and urban areas, the structural mismatch in the labour market, with persistently high youth unemployment, and the race to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker Brühl, 2025. "The economic rise of China – an analysis of China’s growth drivers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-49, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-024-00640-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-024-00640-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-024-00640-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-024-00640-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fleisher, Belton & Li, Haizheng & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2010. "Human capital, economic growth, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 215-231, July.
    2. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
    3. Weifeng Zhai & Shiling Sun & Guangxing Zhang, 2016. "Reshoring of American manufacturing companies from China," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 62-74, December.
    4. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Zhang, Yi & Kumar, Sanjay & Huang, Xianhai & Yuan, Yiming, 2023. "Human capital quality and the regional economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "Demystifying the Chinese Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(3), pages 259-268, September.
    7. John Whalley & Xiliang Zhao, 2010. "The Contribution of Human Capital to China's Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 16592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yang Liuyi & Zhu Yunchan & Ren Feirong, 2023. "Does government investment push up manufacturing labor costs? Evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Mark Beeson, 2018. "Geoeconomics with Chinese characteristics: the BRI and China’s evolving grand strategy," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 240-256, July.
    10. Qing Liu & Ruosi Lu & Chao Yang, 2020. "International joint ventures and technology diffusion: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 146-169, January.
    11. Justin Yifu Lin & Yan Wang, 2020. "Seventy Years of Economic Development: A Review from the Angle of New Structural Economics," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 26-50, July.
    12. Michael D. Clemes & Baiding Hu & Xuedong Li, 2016. "Services and economic growth in China: an empirical analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 612-627, October.
    13. John Ross & Jinghai Zheng & Karla Simone Prime, 2016. "What can be learned from China’s success?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 51-68, February.
    14. Xiaolan Fu & Wing Thye Woo & Jun Hou, 2016. "Technological innovation policy in China: the lessons, and the necessary changes ahead," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 139-157, August.
    15. Wang, Tao & Xiao, Shiying & Yan, Jun & Zhang, Panpan, 2021. "Regional and sectoral structures of the Chinese economy: A network perspective from multi-regional input–output tables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shunquan Huang & Yongsheng Huo & Guangnian Xiao, 2025. "Impact of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” Construction on the Efficiency of China’s Coastal Ports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    3. Bai, Xue-Jie & Yan, Wen-Kai & Chiu, Yung-Ho, 2015. "Performance evaluation of China's Hi-tech zones in the post financial crisis era — Analysis based on the dynamic network SBM model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 122-134.
    4. Yao Zhao & Xuena Kong & Mahmood Ahmad & Zahoor Ahmed, 2023. "Digital Economy, Industrial Structure, and Environmental Quality: Assessing the Roles of Educational Investment, Green Innovation, and Economic Globalization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    6. Stephan Huber, 2018. "Product Sophistication and Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment," Contributions to Economics, in: Product Characteristics in International Economics, chapter 0, pages 51-90, Springer.
    7. Lansana Bangoura & Diadié Diaw & Karim Barkat, 2013. "Does North-South trade favors training effects : What to learn from trade sophistication links?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2763-2777.
    8. Jing Li & Tsun Se Cheong & Jianfa Shen & Dahai Fu, 2019. "Urbanization And Rural–Urban Consumption Disparity: Evidence From China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 983-996, September.
    9. Gourdon, Julien & Monjon, Stéphanie & Poncet, Sandra, 2016. "Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 105-120.
    10. Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei, 2021. "Is transportation improving urbanization in China?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Huiying Zhang & Xiaohui Yang, 2016. "Intellectual Property Rights and Export Sophistication," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Yu Ri Kim, 2019. "Does aid for trade diversify the export structure of recipient countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 2684-2722, September.
    13. Huang, Juan & Rangkakulnuwat, Poomthan, 2024. "Does years of schooling matter for economic growth at different development levels? New evidence from China," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 75, pages 5-32.
    14. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    15. Omojolaibi, Joseph & Mesagan, Ekundayo & Olaifa, Adeyemi, 2015. "The Impact of Non-oil Export on Domestic Investment in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 70201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Poncet, Sandra & Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe, 2013. "Export Upgrading and Growth: The Prerequisite of Domestic Embeddedness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    17. Zhen Yang & Weijun Gao, 2022. "Evaluating the Coordinated Development between Urban Greening and Economic Growth in Chinese Cities during 2005 to 2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-25, August.
    18. Robert Huggins & Hiro Izushi, 2013. "Knowledge-based Development in Leading Regions across the Globe: An Exploratory Analysis of the co-Evolution of Resources, Capabilities and Outputs," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 1030-1048, April.
    19. Lessmann, Christian & Seidel, André, 2017. "Regional inequality, convergence, and its determinants – A view from outer space," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 110-132.
    20. Xiaoxue Liu & Fuzhen Cao & Shuangshuang Fan, 2022. "Does Human Capital Matter for China’s Green Growth?—Examination Based on Econometric Model and Machine Learning Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-27, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-024-00640-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.