IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v21y2024i4d10.1007_s10368-024-00612-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

You are uncertain and we are at stress! How does monetary policy uncertainty affect financial stress? The case of the US and G7

Author

Listed:
  • Aariya Sen

    (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode)

  • Swarn Rajan

    (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode)

Abstract

The interconnectedness among global economies has led to the flourishing of trade, capital flows and technology. However, a growing literature in this area started monitoring the negative externalities associated with increasing levels of integration, focusing on the spillovers from the US economy. Using a pooled mean group estimator, we analyse the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) spillovers from the US on the financial stress of advanced economies. The results suggested that changes in the MPU of the US do affect the financial stress position of advanced economies. As a result of increased uncertainty, financial stress increases in the long run as the countries are based on similar fundamentals, and stress in one country could create a crisis-like condition in others. On the contrary, in the short-run, the advanced economies are in a temporarily better-off position as increased stress in the US opens up more capital inflow to these economies. The results are relevant to international macroeconomic policymakers and call for the need to keep domestic economies equipped under circumstances of unforeseen crisis. Timely policy interventions in advanced economies can help them in control sudden flow reversals, thereby protecting the domestic economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aariya Sen & Swarn Rajan, 2024. "You are uncertain and we are at stress! How does monetary policy uncertainty affect financial stress? The case of the US and G7," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 749-769, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:21:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-024-00612-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-024-00612-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-024-00612-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-024-00612-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Amit Prakash Jha & Sanjay Kumar Singh, 2020. "Does diversity matter? A fresh inquiry into the energy, economy and environment nexus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1349-1362, March.
    4. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    5. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    8. Kiendrebeogo, Youssouf, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and capital flows," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 412-424.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    10. Dennis Nsafoah & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "International Monetary Policy Spillovers," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 87-104, February.
    11. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zhang, Bing & Gao, Ruzhao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock–bond correlations: Evidence from the US market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-96.
    12. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    15. Ying Xu & Hai Anh La, 2017. "Spillovers of the United States’ Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: The Bank Lending Channel," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2744-2769, December.
    16. Sun, Xiaolei & Yao, Xiaoyang & Wang, Jun, 2017. "Dynamic interaction between economic policy uncertainty and financial stress: A multi-scale correlation framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-221.
    17. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    18. Mr. Subir Lall & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2009/100, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Apostolou, Apostolos & Beirne, John, 2019. "Volatility spillovers of unconventional monetary policy to emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 118-129.
    20. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    21. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    22. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    3. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2014. "Financial stress spillovers in advanced economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-149.
    5. Long, Shaobo & Li, Zixuan, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects of global financial stress: Evidence from the quantile VAR network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mei-Chih Wang & Pao-Lan Kuo & Chan-Sheng Chen & Chien-Liang Chiu & Tsangyao Chang, 2020. "Yield Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    8. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    9. Terver T. Kumeka & Olabusuyi R. Falayi & Adeniyi J. Adedokun & Francis O. Adeyemi, 2022. "An econometric analysis of economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure of the three largest economies in West Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-33, November.
    10. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Kapar, Burcu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Quantifying the volatility spillover dynamics between financial stress and US financial sectors: Evidence from QVAR connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    11. Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Ethelbert Ukachukwu Ojiaku & Ndubuisi Agoh & Chikeziem F. Okorontah & Roy M. Okpara & Callistus Ogu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and equity index in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries: accounting for multiple structural breaks in a panel framework," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 1-30, June.
    12. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    15. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Romina Ruprecht & Xuan Zhou, 2023. "A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Li, Lei, 2017. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 139-145.
    17. Hoang, Dung Phuong & Chu, Lan Khanh & To, Trung Thanh, 2023. "How do economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and natural resources rents affect economic complexity? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    18. Muhammad Sadiq & Syed Tauseef Hassan & Irfan Khan & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, renewable energy, corruption and CO2 emissions nexus in BRICS-1 countries: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21595-21621, August.
    19. Sabani, Nazmie & Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "On the different impact of local and national sources of policy uncertainty on sectoral stock volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    20. Abir Abid & Christophe Rault, 2021. "On the Exchange Rates Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 403-425, September.
    21. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2020. "Not the usual suspects: Critical indicators in a dollarized country's Financial Stress Index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy uncertainty; Financial stress; Advanced economies; Pooled mean group estimation; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:21:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-024-00612-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.