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Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

    (Wilfrid Laurier University
    Balsillie School of International Affairs
    Australian National University)

Abstract

I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 459-490, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:19:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-021-00526-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1
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    2. Masato Shizume, 2022. "The Great Influenza Pandemic in Japan: Policy Responses and Socioeconomic Consequences," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Influenza 1918–20; Globalization; Openness; Financial integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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