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Medium term economic dynamics of the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • K. Mc Morrow

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

  • F. Orlandi

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

  • R. Raciborski

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

  • W. Roeger

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

  • V. Vandermeulen

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

  • J. in’tVeld

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

  • L. Vogel

    (EU Commission/DG ECFIN)

Abstract

This paper analysis the Euro area’s growth over the last 15–20 years and provides a medium term outlook. We find that in a no policy change scenario, growth will be subdued, essentially reflecting the influence of weak pre-crisis trends, most notably for TFP (especially since the mid-1990’s). This trend will be exacerbated over the coming decade by the ongoing negative fallout from the financial crisis and by the emerging drag on growth emanating from ageing populations. Unlike in standard recessions, the GDP losses relative to a pre-crisis projection appear to be permanent. The picture presented could potentially improve with the implementation of an ambitious programme of structural reforms focussed on boosting employment and productivity. Since the usefulness of such policies is controversial in the current juncture with constrained monetary policy, the paper also looks at the impact of such reforms in a realistically calibrated model and concludes that fears of large permanent deflationary effects from structural reforms are exaggerated.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Mc Morrow & F. Orlandi & R. Raciborski & W. Roeger & V. Vandermeulen & J. in’tVeld & L. Vogel, 2016. "Medium term economic dynamics of the Euro Area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 27-43, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:13:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-015-0324-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-015-0324-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
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    7. Fabrice Orlandi, 2012. "Structural unemployment and its determinants in the EU countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 455, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2016. "Beyond EU-US Trade Dynamics: TTIP Effects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation," EIIW Discussion paper disbei212, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    2. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "EU-US trade post-trump perspectives: TTIP aspects related to foreign direct investment and innovation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 259-294, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting and simulation; Economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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