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Unit and fractional roots with deterministic trends in the UK output

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  • Luis Gil-Alana

Abstract

In this article, the nominal, real, and real per capita GDP series are modeled in the UK by means of fractionally integrated techniques. A version of the tests of Robinson [1994] are used that permits the incorporation of deterministic trends with no effect on the standard (normal) limit distribution of the tests. The results show that the nominal GDP appears to be nonstationary and non-mean reverting, with its order of integration being much higher than 1. The real GDP also appears to be nonstationary and the order of integration fluctuates widely between 0.6 and 1.2. Finally, the real per capita GDP seems to be stationary, either I(0) or I(d), with D positive but close to 0. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Gil-Alana, 2002. "Unit and fractional roots with deterministic trends in the UK output," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(4), pages 348-356, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:8:y:2002:i:4:p:348-356:10.1007/bf02295509
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02295509
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    1. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
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    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    6. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    7. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
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