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Taxes, Transfers, and Voter Behavior in U.S. Midterm Elections

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  • Ali Akarca
  • Dimitri Andrianacos

Abstract

The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments on midterm congressional election outcomes during the 1946–2002 period are examined. Voters are found to take all of these, except taxes and transfers at the state and local government levels, into account in casting their ballots. However, the weights they place on each are found not to be the same. Consequently, the common practice of summarizing the economic conditions faced by voters through disposable income seems to be inappropriate. Also, omission of tax and transfer variables from the vote equation, and using vote swing rather than vote share as the dependent variable is found to result in underestimation of the coefficient of per capita GDP growth. Copyright IAES 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 2006. "Taxes, Transfers, and Voter Behavior in U.S. Midterm Elections," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(4), pages 468-474, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:4:p:468-474:10.1007/s11294-006-9041-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-006-9041-3
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    1. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
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    3. Tufte, Edward R., 1975. "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 812-826, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    congressional elections; economic voting; taxes; government transfers; D70;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

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