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Decision support for malaria‐control programmes – a system dynamics model

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  • Steffen Flessa

Abstract

Although malaria claims millions of casualties every year there are hardly any recent efforts to model its epidemiology in order to support decision-makers of malaria-control programmes. There have been ample attempts to develop analytical models during the era of WHO malaria eradication programmes (1950–1970), but none of them was detailed enough to honour the high complexity arising from the interdependencies of the environment, the parasite, vector and host system. This paper presents a multi-group system dynamics model of the spread of malaria in an African country. Epidemiological details are included so that the impact of several intervention programmes can be simulated and analysed. The model's basic structure is fully described and some examples of the simulations are presented. It becomes obvious that detailed multi-group system dynamics models are valuable to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of anti-malaria campaigns. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Flessa, 1999. "Decision support for malaria‐control programmes – a system dynamics model," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 181-191, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:2:y:1999:i:3:p:181-191
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1019044013467
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    Cited by:

    1. M S Rauner & S C Brailsford & S Flessa, 2005. "Use of discrete-event simulation to evaluate strategies for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in developing countries," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(2), pages 222-233, February.
    2. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    3. Donghyun Choi & Yonghwi Noh & Jin Sung Rha, 2019. "Work pressure and burnout effects on emergency room operations: a system dynamics simulation approach," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 13(3), pages 433-456, September.
    4. Lasry, Arielle & Zaric, Gregory S. & Carter, Michael W., 2007. "Multi-level resource allocation for HIV prevention: A model for developing countries," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 786-799, July.

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