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Stochastic Economic Assessment of Afforestation on Marginal Land in Irrigated Farming System

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  • Utkur Djanibekov
  • Asia Khamzina

Abstract

We analysed the economic viability of afforestation on marginal irrigated croplands in irrigated drylands of Uzbekistan. The revenues derived from a combination of diversified agricultural production, carbon sequestration, nitrogen fixation, and avoided irrigation water use were analysed considering uncertainty associated with on-farm activities such as crop production and short-rotation forestry. At the per hectare scale variability in land-use revenues would necessitate substantial increases in carbon prices for afforestation to be as profitable as crop cultivation on marginal lands, assuming an abundant irrigation water supply. In contrast, at the farm scale the analysis results revealed that afforestation can be attractive financially even without carbon payments due to farm production constraints, variable land-use returns, and the benefits of land-use diversification. Increased carbon prices would promote carbon sequestration by motivating farmers to plant high biomass producing tree species, but would have an ecosystem service trade-off by reducing the appeal of nitrogen-fixing species that are essential for nitrogen self-sufficiency of afforestation efforts. Given the modest irrigation needs of afforestation efforts compared to the cultivation of annual crops, tree plantations could become a primary income source for farms during periods of drought. Irrigation water saved from replacing crops with trees on marginal farmland would enhance the cultivation of commercial crops on productive lands, thus increasing farm income. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Utkur Djanibekov & Asia Khamzina, 2016. "Stochastic Economic Assessment of Afforestation on Marginal Land in Irrigated Farming System," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(1), pages 95-117, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:63:y:2016:i:1:p:95-117
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-014-9843-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2015. "The effects of variability under farm land consolidation process: A perspective of cotton-growing farmers in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211829, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Muradullayev, Nuriddin & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Mustafaqulov, Sherzod, 2014. "Current state and future prospects of crop insurance in Uzbekistan," ReCCA-Conference 2014 212559, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    3. Spyra, Marcin & La Rosa, Daniele & Zasada, Ingo & Sylla, Marta & Shkaruba, Anton, 2020. "Governance of ecosystem services trade-offs in peri-urban landscapes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Neudert, Regina & Olschofsky, Konstantin & Kübler, Daniel & Prill, Laura & Köhl, Michael & Wätzold, Frank, 2018. "Opportunity costs of conserving a dry tropical forest under REDD+: The case of the spiny dry forest in southwestern Madagascar," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 102-114.
    5. Xueting Zeng & Liang Cui & Qian Tan & Zhong Li & Guohe Huang, 2018. "A Sustainable Land Utilization Pattern for Confirming Integrity of Economic and Ecological Objectives under Uncertainties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Del Río San José, Jorge & Reque Kilchenmann, José & Martínez De Azagra Paredes, Andrés, 2018. "To replant or to irrigate: A silvicultural decision model for afforestation projects," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 18-29.
    7. Susanne Neuner & Thomas Knoke, 2017. "Economic consequences of altered survival of mixed or pure Norway spruce under a dryer and warmer climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 519-531, February.
    8. Ochoa. M, W. Santiago & Härtl, Fabian H. & Paul, Carola & Knoke, Thomas, 2019. "Cropping systems are homogenized by off-farm income – Empirical evidence from small-scale farming systems in dry forests of southern Ecuador," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 204-219.
    9. Monge, Juan J. & Daigneault, Adam J. & Dowling, Leslie J. & Harrison, Duncan R. & Awatere, Shaun & Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle, 2018. "Implications of future climatic uncertainty on payments for forest ecosystem services: The case of the East Coast of New Zealand," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PB), pages 199-212.
    10. Dragicevic, Arnaud Z., 2019. "Rethinking the forestry in the Aquitaine massif through portfolio management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.

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